155
AXPZ20 KNHC 142003
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N100W to 11N114W to
10N120W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to beyond 07N140W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from
04N to 11N between 87W and 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 02N to 10N E of 110W,
and from 06N to 11N between 126W and 132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure near 37N139W
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, while low pressure
prevails over Mexico. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja
California peninsula as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters,
including in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range off Baja California Norte and 5-7 ft off Baja California
Sur. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the weather pattern will support fresh winds
west of the Baja California peninsula and off the coasts of
Jalisco and Colima through tonight, with large NW swell west of
the Baja peninsula into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. A
late season cold front will move into Baja California and the
northern Gulf of California Sat and Sat night. The front will
usher in rough seas in NW swell Sun and Mon west of Baja
California Norte. Strong SW gap winds and rough seas are possible
late Sat over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the
front.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, reaching 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.
Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-5 ft range.
For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms will
persist over the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa Rica
through at least Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
across the region through Sat, then diminish through Mon. Expect
moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. Slight to moderate seas,
primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A ridge prevails over the waters north of 20N and west of 110W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds north of
the ITCZ and west of 120W. NW swell is bringing seas of 7-9 ft
over the waters north of a line from 20N140W to 26N120W. Gentle
to locally moderate winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere
in a mix of swell.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the waters north of 20N and low pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the
ITCZ and west of 120W through early next week. The NW swell will
combine with seas from trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 130W
through the latter part of the week.
$$
AL
