000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020843
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 05N105W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N105W to 06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 95W and
105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak ridge extending from off southern California to off Los
Cabos is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft
combined seas off the coast of Baja California. Gentle breezes
are evident elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open
waters.
For the forecast, the weakening ridge west of Baja California Norte will
dissipate today Sun ahead of a cold front approaching the region
from the west. Winds and seas will increase off Baja California
Norte and the northern Gulf of California Mon as the front moves
into the region. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front
as it stalls and dissipates by late Tue over the central Gulf of
California and northern Baja California Sur. Combined seas in
excess of 8 ft with NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo
San Lazaro through early Wed. Highest wave heights may reach 14
ft near Guadalupe Island by late Mon. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will diminish across the region north of 20N by late Thu.
Farther south, gentle breezes will persist along moderate
combined seas primarily in SW swell.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region and
Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N based on
earlier scatterometer data. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4
to 6 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the
offshore forecast waters.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through late
Thu, with seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week.
Moderate long- period southerly swell will persist in all the
offshore waters the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front is moving south of 30N between 130W and 140W. An
earlier altimeter satellite pass from 00 UTC confirmed 8 to 10
ft combined seas from 07N to 20N between 120W and 125W. This is
part of a larger area of fresh to strong trade winds combined
seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft from 05N to 20N west of 115W. The
combined seas are a mix of local wind seas attributed to the
trade wind flow and a component of primarily NW swell. The
enhanced trade winds are due to high pressure building north of
the front, tightening the pressure gradient over the tropical
Pacific. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas with primarily
SW swell. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 125W
along with trade wind convergence in the lower levels is
supporting scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ between
115W and 120W.
For the forecast, the areal extent of the trades will increase
farther east into Sun as the high pressure north of the area
strengthens some. The next swell group will move south of 30N
Mon, with combined seas of 8 to 11 ft covering most of the area
north of 20N by late Tue. These combined seas will subside below
8 ft through mid week, leaving residual combined seas in excess
of 8 ft from 05N to 20N west of 125W by late Thu, in a mix of
local trade wind seas and northerly swell.
$$
Christensen
