AXPZ20 KNHC 020843

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05N105W to 06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 95W and 105W.


A weak ridge extending from off southern California to off Los Cabos is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas off the coast of Baja California. Gentle breezes are evident elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas in open waters.

For the forecast, the weakening ridge west of Baja California Norte will dissipate today Sun ahead of a cold front approaching the region from the west. Winds and seas will increase off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Mon as the front moves into the region. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front as it stalls and dissipates by late Tue over the central Gulf of California and northern Baja California Sur. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft with NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through early Wed. Highest wave heights may reach 14 ft near Guadalupe Island by late Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region north of 20N by late Thu. Farther south, gentle breezes will persist along moderate combined seas primarily in SW swell.


Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N based on earlier scatterometer data. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through late Thu, with seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. Moderate long- period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next several days.


A cold front is moving south of 30N between 130W and 140W. An earlier altimeter satellite pass from 00 UTC confirmed 8 to 10 ft combined seas from 07N to 20N between 120W and 125W. This is part of a larger area of fresh to strong trade winds combined seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft from 05N to 20N west of 115W. The combined seas are a mix of local wind seas attributed to the trade wind flow and a component of primarily NW swell. The enhanced trade winds are due to high pressure building north of the front, tightening the pressure gradient over the tropical Pacific. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas with primarily SW swell. Divergence aloft east of a mid/upper trough along 125W along with trade wind convergence in the lower levels is supporting scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ between 115W and 120W.

For the forecast, the areal extent of the trades will increase farther east into Sun as the high pressure north of the area strengthens some. The next swell group will move south of 30N Mon, with combined seas of 8 to 11 ft covering most of the area north of 20N by late Tue. These combined seas will subside below 8 ft through mid week, leaving residual combined seas in excess of 8 ft from 05N to 20N west of 125W by late Thu, in a mix of local trade wind seas and northerly swell.

$$ Christensen