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AXPZ20 KNHC 252152
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front will move southeastward across northern Mexico and the Gulf of California tonight into Mon, and bring strong west gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf through early Mon. Northerly winds become strong to near gale force behind the front by early Mon. These gale force winds are expected over the far northern Gulf of California Mon morning through early Tue. Near gale force winds will prevail afterwards through mid-day Tue. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will then continue along the Gulf of California through Wed morning. Seas will become very rough over the northern Gulf of California Mon through Mon night, with wave heights reaching near 13 ft before subsiding to around 8 ft early on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 123W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the northern section of the wave axis from 3N to 17N between 120W-127W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 08N126W. The ITCZ begins near 08N126W and continues beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 13N between 96W to 115W, and from 07N-11W along the coast of Panama north to Nicaragua and El Salvador and E of 90W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming gale event in the northern Gulf of California.

Gentle to moderate northwest winds are across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 6 ft, except locally fresh west of Cabo San Lucas. Gentle winds prevail along the SW Mexico offshore Waters this afternoon. Moderate to fresh north winds are seen in the Latest ASCAT pass this afternoon. These fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue to affect the Gulf of Tehunatepec region through early Mon with seas up to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then prevail through Mon afternoon with seas subsiding and remaining below 6 ft through mid-week.

Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico through Thu, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are expected Tue evening through Thu associated with the gap wind event in the Gulf of California.

A strong cold front will move across Baja California and northern Mexico tonight into Mon. Related impacts are described above under the Special Features section.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the southern waters through Tue night, then increase to moderate to fresh over the Colombia offshores Wed through Thu evening. Seas are expected to remain 5-6 ft in south to southwest swell across the entire region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure north of the region extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area to 19N140W. Pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure near the California coast is allowing for moderate to fresh NE winds over the area west of 130W. Tropical wave along 123W and surface trough near 131W. Both features are well depicted by the latest ASCAT pass with moderate to locally fresh NE winds west of the trough, roughly from 14N to 22N E of 140W. These conditions will slowly diminish through Mon morning as the ridge weakens and the tropical wave moves west of the forecast area.

$$ Torres

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