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935
AXPZ20 KNHC 270240
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri May 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0150 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low Pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: Visible satellite imagery earlier this evening indicated that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with an area of disturbed weather located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, near 12.5N95W at 1008 mb. Current winds are estimated to be 20 to 25 kt with seas just less than 8 ft. Infrared satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate to strong convection within 150 nm mainly in the northeast quadrant of the developing low. Additional similar deep convection is located inland from the western coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua all the way to southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of Guatemala and southern Mexico during the next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. In addition, the low will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting Fri and through the weekend. This system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 83W north of 03N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the section below.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12.5N95W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11.5N107W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N117W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10.5N134W to 07.5N136.5W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N136.5W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 97W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 92W and 95W, and from 08N to 11N between 127W and 131W.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the first potential tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season.

Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail from offshore Baja California to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California, except moderate southerly in the northern portion. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere west of the area of low pressure and 97W to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range offshore Mexico and west of 97W, with seas 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California north of the entrance.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of southeastern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Observations across coastal Mexico also report haze with slight reductions in visibilities along the southwestern coast of Mexico.

For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, winds offshore Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh Fri through the weekend and into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere outside impact areas from the possible tropical cyclone. NW swell will build offshore Baja California late in the weekend into early next week.


...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features above for details on the first potential tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season.

Mainly light to gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, except moderate offshore of the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell.

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N within 60-120 nm of the coast of Central America ahead of a tropical wave described above.

For the forecast, aside from potential impacts from the possible tropical cyclone, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Mon, increasing to moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough Mon night through Tue night. Moderate seas in SW swell will persist through the next several days, potentially building by the middle of next week south of the monsoon trough as the winds freshen.


...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N124W to 23N128W. No significant convection is noted near the trough with gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the trough. Otherwise, high pressure of 1018 mb is located just west of the discussion waters near 28.5N142W with broad ridging prevailing across the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Several weak areas of low pressure are noted along the monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft north of 20N and west of 120W near the high center. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range mainly due to a S-SW swell elsewhere across the open waters, locally to 8 ft near 11.5N134W where winds are likely locally fresh.

For the forecast, the high pressure will strengthen slightly this weekend into early next week supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough. Reinforcing southerly swell will propagate through the waters south of 10N or so building seas to 7-9 ft Fri through the weekend. Seas will also build slightly to around 8 ft south of 15N and west of 130W due to freshening trades through the weekend. A set of northerly swell will push south of 30N late in the weekend into early next week building seas to 8-11 ft north of 22N between Baja California and 129W.

$$ Lewitsky

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