769
AXPZ20 KNHC 042000
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N88W to 09N99W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N99W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted E of 81W, and from 06N to
11N between 112W and 135W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec along with seas in the 5-87ft range. Moderate to
SW gap winds are in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 3
ft or less across the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in
mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with
gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas.
Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep
tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north-
central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW
United States.
For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are
expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Winds will
increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California
tonight as a ridge builds and tightens the pressure gradient,
locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through
the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending
downstream to near 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight
offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, fresh easterly winds are expected in the
Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu
night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected through much of the week. A set of
SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos
Islands Fri and Fri night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds
across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW
Mexico. A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade
winds north of the ITCZ to 20N between 130W and 140W. Seas are
6-8 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas are noted.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh
trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N
and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across
this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to
rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.
$$
AL
