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AXPZ20 KNHC 221519
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1207 UTC Fri Mar 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds continue early this morning over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish below gale force by this afternoon. Winds will further diminish through Sat morning as the gradient slackens. Seas downstream from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly diminish to below 8 ft by Sun afternoon. A prolonged gap wind gale event is possible next week from Mon to Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for specific marine details on this ongoing event.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N86W to 04N91W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 02N96W to 04N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W and 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 120W and 128W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for more details concerning the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Gulf of California: Fairly quiet conditions will continue through early next week, with seas remaining in the 1-3 ft range.

High pressure of 1024 mb centered near 28N127W will continue to generate fresh winds along the Pacific Coast of the Baja Peninsula through this weekend before diminishing slightly by early Sun. Seas west of the Baja Peninsula are currently in the 7 to 9 ft rage. Seas will slowly subside through early Sat before a new set of NW swell propagates into the area, increasing seas to the 8-11 ft range by Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to near gale force during the late night and early morning hours the next several nights.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh winds will pulse to strong at night over the Gulf of Panama through Sat night. Peak wave heights are expected to reach 8 or 9 ft where winds are strongest.

Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 4-5 ft seas in mixed swell will build to the range of 5-7 ft during the upcoming weekend as both long period SW and NW swell arrive. Light to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas will be the general rule elsewhere through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving through the NW waters, currently extending from 30N136W to 28N140W. The front has ushered in a new set of NW swell, with seas currently peaking near 15 ft west of the front. The swell will propagate SE while slowly subsiding the next several days. The cold front will slowly shift eastward before dissipating by Sun. A new cold front will move into the NW waters Sun, ushering in another set of NW swell into the area, with seas expected to peak near 13 ft Sun.

Further south, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 28N127W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds from 08N to 12N between 120W and 132W.

Elsewhere, NW swell propagating across the forecast waters is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater across much of the forecast waters W of 110W. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas will slowly decrease through Sat before the next swell once again increases seas above across this area.

$$ AL

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