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036
AXPZ20 KNHC 170347
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed N of 05N along 89W and is estimated to be progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is flaring intermittently across the Pacific within 240 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed from 03N105W to 14N104W and is estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate and strong convection is noted within 300 nm of the wave axis.


.A tropical wave is analyzed from 08N117W through a 1008 mb surface low embedded along the wave at 12.5N117.5W to 17N117W. This system is moving W at 18 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed n of 11N within 210 nm either side of the wave axis. Recent scatterometer winds detected an area of fresh SE winds and 7 to 8 ft seas to the of 13N within 90 nm e of the wave axis. The associated seas are forecast to less than 8 ft in 24 hours.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends W off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N78W and across the Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 08N84W then continues w through a tropical wave at 08N88.5W to 08N106W where it loses identity. Scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops at 08N106W and extends NW to 12N116W, then resumes from 12N120W to 08N133W to beyond.

Except as mentioned near the tropical waves and tropical lows, isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 240 nm either side of a line 08N83W to 08N96W to 11N101W to 10N111W to 16N117W to 08N132W to 12N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong nocturnal drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, will continue through Wed night then resume again on Fri night and continue through the upcoming weekend.

A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N116W to near 15N101W this week. A moderate NW breeze will develop within 90 nm of the Baja Peninsula during the evenings, otherwise gentle anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis accompanied by 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of California: Moderate southerly flow will continue between 30N and 31N through Wed, then resume on Fri night. Elsewhere, light to gentle southerly flow expected for the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected through Thu night with extended guidance suggesting these conditions will resume on Sun night.

Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas.

Long period southerly swell, in the form of 7 to 8 ft seas, will arrive along 03.4S to the E of 93W late Wed, and propagate N reaching the far offshore waters between 10N and 14N W of 87W during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N140W to 23N116W this week, with moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 4 to 7 ft seas.

Long period cross-equatorial swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, will move across the equator between 90W and 125W on Wed, and continue to propagate N across the discussion area S of 17N between 80W and 130W by early next week.

Long period northerly swell, in the form of 7-9 ft seas, will arrive along 32N between 125W and 132W on Thu night, and cover the waters from 30N to 32N between 130W and 140W during the upcoming weekend.

$$ Nelson

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