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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230852
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
847 UTC Wed May 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west from 12N88W to 08N105W to 09N138W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge will meander beyond 250 nm seaward of northern and central Mexico for the next few days. Moderate northwest flow will prevail west of 100W, and light to gentle northwest flow is east of 100W. An area of 5 to 7 ft seas currently noted east of 115W. Little change in the forecast is expected through Thu afternoon, when a tightening pressure gradient will produce a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula. Locally strong conditions are forecast near 26N113W on Fri night.

Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf of California on Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected this week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mixed swell resulting in 5 to 7 ft seas currently across the offshore waters near 09N90W. Elsewhere, light SW winds are expected for the next several days to the south of 10N with 3 to 5 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface high is centered near 36N163W with a ridge extending southeast to near 14N110W. Little change to the moderate trades currently observed south of the ridge through Thu, with seas ranging between 4 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low develops along the ITCZ near 10N132W late this week resulting in fresh to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low with seas building to 8 ft.

Further north...the surface high will dissipate as the ridge shifts south today allowing a cold front to reach along a position from 32N137W to 30N142W overnight. The front will continue east eventually losing identity from 32N126W 24N128W on Thu night into Fri. Although only fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front, northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri morning.

$$

ERA

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