000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142112
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2010 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the
waters N of 07N and W of 116W will be reinforced tonight through
Tue with new large NW swell generated behind a cold front
entering the NW waters. This new NW swell will increase seas in
excess of 12 ft across the NW waters starting this evening, with
seas building to 12 to 18 ft N of 24N and W of 131W by Sun
evening, then continue to propagate southeastward and cover the
area N of 23N and W of 122W with seas of 12 to 20 ft by Mon
evening. Seas will then begin to subside to near 12 ft Mon night
through Tue evening before new N swell enters the northern
waters Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through
Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 06.5N77W to 02N92W. The ITCZ extends from
00.5N95W to 03S110.5W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W
and 93W, and from 04N to 08.5N between 135W and 140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 96W and 124W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the
waters W of 110W this afternoon, centered on a 1021 mb high near
27N120W. The pressure gradient between this high and a trough
across NW Mexico is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds
across the Baja California waters and inside the Gulf of
California, with locally fresh winds nearshore and to the SW of
Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell offshore Baja
California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere N of the Revillagigedo
Islands, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Gap
winds overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have shut down
completely, with light and variable winds now across that area.
Gentle N to NW winds with seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail from Cabo
Corrientes to Puerto Angel.
For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area will
drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, ahead of a
cold front moving into the waters along 140W this afternoon.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja
California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through Sun night, then
again starting Tue. The cold front will approach Baja California
Norte Mon night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the
northern Gulf of California, and west of Baja Norte through
early Tue. These winds will diminish as the front moves through
Baja California and the northern Gulf of California and gradually
dissipates on Tue. High pressure building across the region
behind the front will produce fresh to strong northerly winds N
of 20N Wed through Thu. NW swell moving into the Baja waters this
afternoon will peak tonight then gradually subside through early
Mon. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters W of 110W Mon
through Wed, with seas building to 12 ft and greater N of Punta
Eugenia Mon night through Tue evening. Fresh to strong gap winds
will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue
morning before diminishing.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue across the Papagayo
region extending offshore to near 90W this afternoon, as shown in
midday satellite scatterometer data. This is generating seas to
near 8 ft offshore. Moderate N winds prevail across the Gulf of
Panama and become fresh NE winds to the south then southwest of
the Azuero Peninsula, where seas continue at 4 to 6 ft. Moderate
or weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell are elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and locally rough
seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early Sun,
then pulse to moderate to fresh into early next week. Fresh to
strong winds may return there Tue through Wed as high pressure
builds across the NW Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds will
generally continue across the Gulf of Panama through the middle
of next week, pulsing to locally fresh each late afternoon into
the night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas will change little through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.
Weakening high pressure prevails across the waters W of 110W
this afternoon, centered on a 1021 mb high near 27N120W. A cold
front has moved into the NW waters, extending from 30N135W to
28N140W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are building in behind
the front, accompanied by new NW swell producing seas of 9 to 10
ft. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted
from roughly 04N to 23N between 118W and 140W, where seas are 6
to 9 ft in NW swell. Mainly moderate or weaker winds prevail
elsewhere to the east, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 7 to 9 ft
in fading NW swell covers the waters N of 238N and W of 115W to
the cold front.
For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell
expected to enter the NW waters this evening, the cold front
will reach from 30N128W to 23N140W by Sun morning, with fresh to
strong winds behind it, then reach from 30N123W to 19N140W Mon
morning, and from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue,
with winds N of 20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front and the belt of
moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ will increase to at least
fresh to strong early next week. Active showers and
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell will
accompany these increasing trades.
$$
Stripling
