204
AXPZ20 KNHC 102056
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
...Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning...
A strong cold front has entered the NW Gulf of America, while
strong high pressure builds in its wake. Strong to gale force
northerly winds will funnel trough the Chivela Pass into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec this evening. Seas are expected to build to 10 ft
tonight and 20 ft by Sun morning. By Sun afternoon, winds are
forecast to reach storm-force speeds with seas peaking to 24 ft
during the Sun evening hours. Winds will diminish to gale force
early Mon morning and prevail through Tue evening. Afterward,
winds will gradually diminish through Wed night.
...Gulf of California Gale Warning...
A strong pressure gradient between a surface ridge building
across the Great Basin and offshore California, and a surface
trough along the coast of Baja California is resulting in gale
force NW winds, mainly N of 30N. Strong to near-gale NW winds
are noted elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Rough seas are noted
with the strongest winds. These conditions, verified by latest
scatterometer data, will prevail through early Sun.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
details about these warnings.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N116W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N116W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N to 15N and W of 117W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the section above for details on the upcoming Storm
Warning over the Tehuantepec region, and the Gale Warning in
effect for the northern Gulf of California.
The strong pressure gradient related to the Gale warning
described above, is also resulting in fresh to strong winds
funneling through the Baja mountain passages into its offshore
waters. Seas along the Baja California's offshore waters are in
the rough range. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas in NW swell are elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore
waters.
For the forecast, gale force NW winds will prevail in northern
Gulf of California through early Sun, then strong to near-gale
NW winds will dominate through Mon. A large area of N gale-force
gap winds and very rough seas will occur across and well
downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this evening as a
strong cold front moves through the western Gulf of America.
Winds will further increase to storm-force beginning on Sun
through early Mon. Then, gale conditions will prevail through Tue
night. Large swell will reach as far south as the Revillagigedo
Islands into Sun, with very rough seas north of Cabo San Lazaro
through today.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure extending across the northwest Caribbean and the
Yucatan is supporting fresh to strong NE gap winds across the
Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are also
ongoing across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support
fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region through Wed.
Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds are also expected
across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. A strong gap wind event in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight will result in rough
seas spreading to the offshore waters of Guatemala Sun into early
next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the forecast period.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1030 mb offshore California extends a
ridge across the subtropical waters and deep into the tropics to
15N. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E
winds from just N of the ITCZ to 21N due to the pressure gradient
between these two features. Seas within these winds are rough to
10 ft per recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate
or weaker and seas moderate.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail over the far
western tropical waters through Mon along with rough seas that
are forecast to subside by the middle of the week. Otherwise, a
strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will result in
rough to very rough seas to 14 ft to affect the open waters from
07N to 13N between 95W and 110W Sun evening into Tue night.
$$
ERA
