000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090301
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient
between a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America
southward to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ will continue to support gale-force northerly
winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon. Winds
will quickly diminish through the day. Peak seas with these
winds may reach to near 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft in west
to northwest swell by Tue afternoon.
Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Gale-force winds will pulse again
across the Papagayo region tonight due to the pressure gradient
between high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America
and relatively lower pressure associated with the ITCZ. Rough
seas will accompany these winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 03N110W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 04N140W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 14N110W to 05N120W. Scattered moderate convection
is with the second trough mainly between 108W-119W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Features section above for details.
Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest
to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the
southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are
prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are mostly
in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California
while mostly gentle northwest winds are in the northern section.
Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the central and southern sections of the
Gulf and 2 to 3 ft in the northern section. Seas of 5 to 7 ft
are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft
in long-period west to northwest swell from 17N-22N and west of
107W.
For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event,
the long-period northwest swell north of 17N and west of 107W
will begin to decay tonight. A cold front is expected to move
across the waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue
into Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong southeast winds are
expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue
ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell in
the wake of the front may move through the outermost offshore
waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying
Wed night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in
the far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see
the Special Features section above for details.
Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, fresh to strong NE
winds have developed in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh
northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the
offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of
Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, the strong
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through the
forecast period.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1029 mb is analyzed north of the area at
32N131W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data
passes reveal light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and
west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is
producing fresh trades from 07N to 15N west of 120W. Seas over
these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest swell mixed
with wind generated waves, except mixed with northeast to east
swell west of about 128W. Fresh east winds generated from the
recent Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event have spread
westward to near 105W.
For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest
swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades
over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some
late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part
of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts
eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft
in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along
and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time.
$$
ERA
