000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160707
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW waters, behind a cold front which
extends from 30N126W to 19N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have
reached as far S as 22N to the W of 130W, with peak seas
currently around 18 ft near 29N140W. Rough seas of 12 ft and
greater will continue to propagate southeastward and reach the
waters N of 21N and W of 121W by this evening, then begin to
slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 23N and W of
118W by early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less
than 12 ft Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern
waters by early Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed
through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 07.5N81W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N100W to 02N120W to beyond 01N140W. No significant
convection is noted.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weakening high pressure continues to produce a broad ridge
south-southeastward from offshore Baja California to offshore of
Cabo Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland
across western Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds
have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a cold front
moving through the Bay of Campeche to the N and building high
pressure behind the front. Mostly W-NW winds are across the
remainder of the offshore waters, locally fresh in the northern
Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 7 ft offshore Baja California
and W of 110W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewehre, except 3 ft or less in
the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will
persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves by to
the N through the Bay of Campeche with high pressure building
behind it. Those winds will persist into early Tue before
diminishing. A cold front will approach Baja California later
today with troughing ahead of it supporting fresh to near gale-
force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California later this
morning through early Tue, with similar winds early Wed as the
actual front shifts by. Fresh to strong SW-W winds offshore Baja
California N of Punta Eugenia will be ahead of the front late
tonight, diminishing by early Tue. High pressure will build in
across the waters offshore Baja California in the wake of the
front, with fresh to locally strong winds nearshore Baja
California to near Cabo Corrientes by mid-week. New rough to
very rough NW swell will move into the waters offshore Baja
California later today through Wed, getting reinforced Wed night
through the end of the week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo.
Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft from
offshore Colombia northwestward, and 3 to 5 ft offshore Ecuador
to the Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong
this evening as high pressure builds across Central America.
Those winds will continue to pulse through at least early Thu,
then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE
winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero
Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next
several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.
A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters,
extending from 30N126W to 19N140W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds
and building seas are behind the front, and are just below gale
force across the far NW waters. Weak and broad high pressure
prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
from 07N to 16N between 110W and 140W with moderate or weaker
winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell N of
the ITCZ to 15N and W of 120W, and 5 to 7 ft across the
remainder of the open waters ahead of the front.
For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early
Tue. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish
from W to E tonight through Tue as the front weakens and
continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Thu as a
low to middle-level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W.
This scenario will produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of
the ITCZ to 24N and W of 120W late Tue through early Fri, Expect
active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas
in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.
$$
Lewitsky
