000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170755
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move
southeastward across the NW and north-central waters this
evening, behind and just ahead of a cold front which extends
from the far northern Gulf of California near 27.5N115W to
off Baja California at 15N125W. Seas of 12 ft and greater cover
the waters N of 22N and W of 120W, peaking around 17 ft near
30N128W. Very rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to
propagate southeastward today, then will begin to slowly
subside during the afternoon. Seas will then continue to subside
to less than 12 ft this evening, before new N swell enters the
northern waters by early Wed, raising seas above 12 ft across the
waters N of 26N between 116W and 140W by Wed evening, and
spreading southward into early Thu before slowly subsiding to
less than 12 ft Thu night. Looking ahead, another significant and
large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the
upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 09.5N85W to 02N93W. The ITCZ extends from
02N93W to 00.5N120W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between
132W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A cold front stretches from the far northern Gulf of California
near 27.5N115W to off Baja California at 15N125W. Fresh to near
gale-force SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California ahead
of the front, with fresh to strong winds behind the front
offshore Baja California Norte N of 27N. A gale warning is in
place just N of 30N in the San Diego coastal waters for early
today and again tonight. Building seas in rough to very rough NW
swell are arriving behind the front. Fresh to strong N gap winds
are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Winds are moderate or weaker across the
remainder of the waters with moderate seas, except locally fresh
winds near Cabo Corrientes, and slight seas in the central and
southern Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the cold front from the far northern Gulf of
California to off Baja California will gradually dissipate
through tonight. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the
front and in the northern Gulf of California will persist through
about midday. High pressure will build in across the area waters
in the wake of the front through Fri, producing fresh to locally
strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California to near Cabo
Corrientes Wed through Thu night. Strong to near gale-force W to
SW winds will develop again across the northern Gulf of
California early Wed through Wed evening, then again Thu night
into early Fri due to localized troughing. NW swell will continue
to build across the waters of Baja California through Wed, then
become reinforced Wed night through the end of the week,
decaying during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will
continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning before
diminishing, then become onshore Wed through Sat. Looking ahead,
long range model guidance indicates the potential for at least a
strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay
tuned as we get closer to this next potential event.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the
Papagayo region along with 4 to 6 ft seas, while moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of
Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds
are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft
elsewhere, locally to 5 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate
seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure
builds across Central America from the north, continuing through
early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate N
to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama
to south of the Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change
little through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters.
A cold front stretches from the far northern Gulf of California
near 27.5N115W to off Baja California at 15N125W. Fresh to
strong W-NW winds are N of 27N between 119W and 127W. Fresh to
strong NE trades are found from 11N to 22N between 128W and
140W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Winds are mainly
moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters. Rough
seas are W of a line from 30N115W to 20N126W to 11N132W with
very rough seas as described above. Seas are moderate elsewhere.
For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward
today while weakening, with fresh to strong winds behind it
diminishing through the morning. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front today through Fri as a low to middle-level
disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will
produce a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the
ITCZ to near 24N and W of 128W today through early Fri, along
with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to
accompany these increasing trades. Marine conditions should
improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the
disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens.
$$
Lewitsky
