000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152101
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move southeastward
across the NW waters this afternoon, behind a cold front which
extends from 30N126W to 22.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater
have reached as far S as 26N to the W of 133W this afternoon,
with peak seas currently around 16 ft near 30N140W. Rough seas of
12 ft and greater will continue to propagate southeastward
through tonight, and reach the waters N of 22N and W of 123W by
midday Mon, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and
greater N of 24N and W of 119W by early Tue. Seas will then
continue to subside to less than 12 ft by Tue evening, before
new N swell enters the northern waters Wed morning, raising seas
above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 09N83.5W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from
04N97W to 00N108W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 08.5N E of 89W to coastal Colombia.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weakening high pressure of 1018 mb near 26N119W continues to
produce a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland across
western Mexico. Mostly northerly winds are moderate or weaker
across the Baja offshore waters, and central and south portions
of the Gulf of California, with fresh winds near the coast of
Cabo Corrientes. NW swell is subsiding across the regional
waters, with seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of the Baja California
waters, and more moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft elsewhere, except
slight inside the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area along
119W will drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse,
ahead of a cold front moving into the open waters well W of the
area. Moderate winds will continue on either side of Baja
California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then
pulse moderate to fresh starting Tue. The cold front will
reach the Baja Norte waters Mon evening, with fresh to strong SW
winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California, and west
of Baja Norte through early Tue. These winds will diminish as the
front moves through Baja California and the northern Gulf of
California and gradually dissipates on Tue. High pressure
building across the region behind the front will produce fresh to
locally strong northerly winds across the waters N of Cabo
Corrientes Wed through Thu. NW swell dominating the Baja waters
today will subside through early Mon before new large NW swell
moves into the waters W of 110W Mon through Wed. Seas are
expected to build to 12 ft and greater N of Punta Eugenia Mon
evening through Tue evening. Fresh to strong gap winds will
return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue morning
before diminishing.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure is weakening to the N of the region as a new cold
front is moving across the northern Gulf of America. Fresh NE
winds continue across the Papagayo region, extending offshore to
near 90W. This is generating seas 4 to 6 ft offshore. Gentle
northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama become moderate NE
winds extending southwestward and beyond the Azuero Peninsula.
Moderate or weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed S and NW
swell are elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will
persist across the Papagayo region through tonight, then pulse
to moderate to fresh Mon, then pulse fresh to strong Mon night
through early Thu as high pressure builds across the NW
Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds will generally continue across
the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change
little through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters.
A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters,
extending from 30N126W to 22.5N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds
and building seas are behind the front, and are just below gale
force across the far NW waters, with gales N of 30N, as depicted
by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas continue to build
behind the front and are near 16 ft near 30N140W. Weak and broad
high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are from 03N to 17N between 112W and 140W with
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in fading
NW to N swell N of the ITCZ to the front and W of 112W, and 5 to
7 ft across the remainder of the open waters.
For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell
entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds
behind it will reach from 30N122W to 19N140W Mon morning, and
from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue. Winds N of 20N
behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E Mon night
through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward,
before gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front Tue through Thu as a low to middle-level
disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will
produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ and W of
130W late Tue through early Thu, Expect active showers and
thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to
accompany these increasing trades.
$$
Stripling
