Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170303
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 94W north of 05N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 14N between 89W and 95W.

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 109W from 00N-10N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N123W. The ITCZ continues from 11N123W to 11N140W. Aside from convection discussed in the tropical wave section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 118W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Latest scatterometer data show gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas remain in the 5 to 6 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the S and SW Mexico offshore waters with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range as indicated by recent altimeter data. In the Gulf of California, winds are also light to gentle and variable, with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds, occasionally fresh, will be dominant across the waters west of Baja California through Mon late in the afternoon, when winds will diminish to light to gentle. However, seas will remain in the 5 to 6 ft range due to long period SW swell combining with long period N swell early next week. SE winds will develop along the Gulf of California tonight and will continue through Fri night. Moderate southerly winds will resume along the gulf on Mon and diminish again Mon night. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue next week with seas to 5 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southerly flow dominate across much of the forecast waters S of 10N with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range in SW swell, except for 8 ft to the E of the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle variable winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are over the remainder offshore zones N of 10N.

For the forecast, SW swell across the region will subside early on Fri. A second round of SW swell will move across the area during the weekend through early next week, which will sustain seas to 6 ft across the area with mainly moderate southerly winds S of 10N. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region Fri through Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 29N125W to 27N135W. Surface ridging is to the NW of this trough, which is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to nearly 23N. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range over this region according to recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range, except for 8 ft E of the Galapagos Islands.

These conditions are forecast to remain within the forecast period through early next week. Otherwise, a cold front may stall just north of 30N by early next week while associated NW swell builds seas to around 8 ft along and near 30N just W of the Baja California offshore waters.

$$ ERA

Home