AXPZ20 KNHC 271551

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1521 UTC Thu Feb 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over NE Mexico and Texas is funneling winds through the Chivela Pass, which become N to NE strong gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. While no observations of winds or seas were available in the Gulf this morning, Salina Cruz is reporting 35 kt N winds as of 12Z. This implies substantially stronger over water. Strong gale conditions will persist through the next couple days before diminishing Sun morning. Large dangerous seas to about 25 ft are occurring with these winds, and these will only drop to a peak of 20 ft for the next few days. Marine interests transiting across or in the vicinity the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03/HSFEP2 NHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details.


A surface trough extends from 07N82W to 01N98W. The ITCZ continues from 01N98W to 07N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 117W and 132W.


Please read the Special Features section for more details about a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gulf of California: High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing a NW fresh to strong breeze across the Gulf of California today, which will weaken by Fri morning. No ship observations were available, though maximum seas are estimated to be 8-9 ft. Increasing NW winds over the Gulf of California are again expected on Sun and Mon.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails over the offshore waters northwest of Baja California. Fresh NE winds off the northern Baja peninsula will weaken in the afternoon. Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Sun and Mon, along with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are anticipated to reach near 15 ft on Mon.


Large NW swell generated by winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are propagating into the waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today and should continue through early Sun. Seas will reach to 18 ft along the offshore boundary between Guatemala and Mexico today, and then remain near 12 ft through Sun.

Gulf of Papagayo: Building high pressure over Central America will force a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event beginning tonight, with NE strong to near gale conditions resulting through Mon. It is possible that this will be upgraded to a gale warning, if conditions warrant. Peak seas will pulse to 12-13 ft.

Gulf of Panama: The same building high pressure will cause N fresh to strong breezes over the Gulf of Panama Fri through Mon. Peak seas will pulse to 8-9 ft.

Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft will prevail across the remainder of the week into early next week.


A 1037 mb high is centered west of California this morning. The pressure gradient between the high and the ITCZ to the south is causing NE to E fresh to strong breeze trades between 10N and 15N. As the high is anticipated to build in further, the strong trades should expand in area and reach to near gale condition by Sun. Peak seas may build to around 15 ft on Sun and Mon west of 130W between 05N and 15N.

Large NW swell will impact the waters west of Baja California Sun and Mon, along with increasing NW winds. Peak swell are anticipated to reach near 15 ft on Mon.

$$ Landsea