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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010857
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Marie is centered near 14.8N 118.1W at 01/0900 UTC moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 08N to 19N between 113W and 123W. Marie is forecast to contiue on a west- northwestward track through the next several days while intensifying. The current forecast has Marie becoming a major hurricane today. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will continue through early Sat with seas will peak near 15-18 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N92W to 14N105W, then resumes W of Hurricane Marie near 11N125W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 82W and 96W, and from 07N to 16N between 102W and 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale for gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds off the coast of Baja California will continue through the next few days. Swell generated from Hurricane Marie will impact the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula, with seas greater than 8 ft impacting these waters through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate southerly winds will increase to fresh this weekend S of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas generated by gale-force gap winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala through the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Marie.

Outside of Hurricane Marie, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 120W which is maintaining gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. NW swell has propagated into the NW discussion waters. Seas will peak near 9 ft with this swell before subsiding Friday. The large size of Hurricane Marie will generate a large area of seas greater than 8 ft which will spread well away from the cyclone center. By Saturday, seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W.



$$ AL

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