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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Gale force NW winds, with seas to 8 ft are N of 30N tonight behind a cold front. The front will move E of the area on Tue, with marine conditions quickly improving thereafter.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends SW from 05N77W to 07N89W to 03N101W. The ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 03N115W to 07N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 127W and 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of California and central Baja California. Please, see Special Features section for more details. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong NW winds spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte through tonight, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 12 ft. This swell event will continue to spread across the offshore waters W of Baja through Wed with seas of 8-10 ft. Seas of 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Then, seas gradually subsiding to less than 8 ft on Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected over the next couple of days, with seas generally under 4 ft. Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt Thu night into Fri, with seas building to 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W through the forecast period, with seas building to 9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are expected across the western Gulf of Panama through Tue evening, with these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well N of the area near 39N140W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will move south in about 24 hours, reaching a position near 37N140W while slightly weakening. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical waters W of 125W. This conditions will persist for the reamainder of the work week as the high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger high.

Long period NW swell dominates roughly the waters N of 12N W of 110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the remainder of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of Cabo Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft or greater can be found N of 10N W of 115W by Tue night.

$$ Formosa

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