AXPZ20 KNHC 260821

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. High pressure will surge in behind the front across eastern Mexico and northerly winds will rapidly funnel through the Chivela Pass with gale force winds forecast beginning Wed evening in the Tehuantepec region. Winds will approach strong gale early Thu and then again Thu night. The gale force winds are forecast to persist through early Sat morning. Very large seas will build with these winds with seas of 8 ft or greater propagating well west-southwest away from the Tehuantepec region, while peak seas will be around 20 ft Thu night through Fri. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details..

Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front is moving across Baja California, with large long-period NW swell west of Baja California expected through tonight. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are peaking now west of Baja California Norte. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through this evening. Please refer to your local statements issued by your national meteorological service for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 04N90W to 06N112W. The ITCZ extends from 04N119W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 04N between the coast of Colombia and 80W, and from 04N to 07N between 94W and 107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 110W and 113W.

A low pressure area of 1008 mb is located between the termination of the monsoon trough and commencement of the ITCZ near 05N115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 115W and 119W.


Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region, as well as details on a very large NW swell event west of Baja California Norte.

A strong cold front is moving across the region extending from 30N118W to 26N112W to 21N127W. Gale force winds that were occurring from 29N to 31N in the Gulf of California and west of Baja California have recently diminished to fresh to near gale force. Seas are peaking at 8-11 ft from 29N to 31N in the Gulf of California. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less and seas will subside to less than 8 ft this evening.

Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere north of 18N, except fresh to strong offshore of Cabo Corrientes. South of 18N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California and south of Punta Eugenia, and 5-8 ft north of 18N to the Revillagigedo Islands, 3 ft or less in the central and southern Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft south of 18N.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed. Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu through the end of the week.


Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh offshore winds across the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong Wed night through Sat night with building seas by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas will peak between 8-10 ft at that time.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama have diminished to moderate to fresh. Fresh to strong winds will return Thu night through Fri night. Seas will pulse to 5-6 ft the next couple of days, and then 6-8 ft Thu night through Sat night.

Gentle to moderate winds will continue to prevail elsewhere.

Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night.


High pressure of 1034 mb northwest of the area near 33N145W extends a dirty ridge well to the east-southeast to near 13N107W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through this evening.

A large NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area behind a strong cold front which extends from 26N112W to 21N127W, with seas currently 8-20 ft north of 20N, highest east of 130W. The swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 15N between 110W and 135W while the cold front gradually dissipates.

The next strong cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through early Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly swell will accompany this system, propagating southward across the entire area through the end of the week. Winds and seas diminish somewhat for the start of the upcoming weekend.

$$ Lewitsky