AXPZ20 KNHC 260250

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Oct 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC.


The remnants of Rick are centered near 20.4N 103.1W at 26/0300 UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 17N between 101W and 104W. Heavy rains associated with Rick will continue to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for more details.


A tropical wave axis is along 79W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across Panama to near the Colombia-Ecuador border, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave axis is along 94W north of 01N into Mexico near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.


The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to across Panama to 10N90W to 13N94W, then resumes from 15N104W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N112W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N122W to 1011 mb low pressure near 10N137W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 79W, within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 104W and 117W, between 120W and 130W, and between 137W and 140W.


Please see the Special Features section for more details on Rick.

A cold front is approaching Baja California Norte from the west. Large NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 to 14 ft moving into the waters offshore of Baja California Norte. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere over the open waters in mixed swell. Ahead of the front, SW-W winds of fresh to strong are funneling through gaps and into the northern Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft there, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are noted elsewhere west of Baja California. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong SW gap winds are forecast tonight in the northern Gulf of California ahead of and behind a cold front. Also behind the front, fresh to strong winds will develop on Wed in the central Gulf of California. Large NW swell will continue to propagate across the open offshore waters with seas 12 ft or greater possible west of Baja California through mid-week. Northerly fresh to strong winds could also develop off Baja California near Punta Eugenia on Tue and Tue night. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into the upcoming weekend.


Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador in moderate southerly swell. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend, except light and variable north of the monsoon trough. A moderate southerly swell will prevail through the next several days with seas less than 8 ft. Scattered thunderstorms are possible especially along and south of Panama through Tue night.


A cold front extends from 30N120W to 26N130W to 24N140W. A set of NW swell is outrunning the front with seas of 8 ft or greater covering the majority of the waters north of 20N with seas around 20 ft along 30N. Seas are 7 to 9 ft elsewhere north of 06N in remnant mixed swell, with 5 to 7 ft south of 06N. NW-N winds may be locally strong just north of the front and east of 125W this evening. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters.

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through mid-week while the large NW swell continues to propagate southward, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching the equator by Wed night. Winds north of the convergence zone will diminish by the end of the week into the weekend as the pressure gradient across the region slackens. Little change in winds is expected south of the convergence zone. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft across the open waters early during the upcoming weekend.

$$ Lewitsky