000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112035
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 11 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 06N94W to 09N108W
to 04N120W to 08N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 92.5W,
from 08N to 17N between 100W and 107W, and from 03N to 08N
between 136W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west-
northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A
surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California
border to across the Gulf of California. This pattern supports
moderate N-NE winds offshore Baja California Sur, and Gentle NW-N
winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja
California area mainly 5-6 ft in mixed long period SW and NW
swells. Light and variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across
the Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds are in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle variable
winds with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder
of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the
offshore waters S of 18N and between 100W and 106W due to an
active mid to upper level trough.
For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulsing
through early Thu, near gale-force at times during the late night
and early morning hours, as the pressure gradient tightens over
southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front N of the area. Seas
will build to rough at times with these winds. Fresh to strong
SW winds may very briefly develop in the northern Gulf of
California Tue night as a trough develops. Otherwise, mainly
gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the
offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja
California by the end of the week as ridging west of the
peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well
offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas
in mixed SW and NW swells will dominate the offshore waters,
potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by
the end of the week, then to 8-11 ft Sat.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua,
including the Gulf of Papagayo due to a locally tight pressure
gradient. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally
fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama downwind to near the
Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW
dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and
northern South America. Active convection is present across the
offshore waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica as described
above.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse offshore
Gulf of Papagayo through at least the remainder of the week,
mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas
locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters
south of 09N through at least Tue night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N135W to
offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon
trough and west of 110W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere,
including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft from roughly
06N to 11N to the W of 125W in mixed swells. Seas are mainly 5-7
ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells across the remainder of
the open waters, except 7-9 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator
and W of 100W.
For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high
center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an
approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure
gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the
ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft
across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure
will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed
through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W,
with seas building 7-10 ft. Winds may strengthen slightly to
fresh to strong across the N-central waters by the weekend with
seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in
southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters
S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in
coverage to near 100W through tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may
persist across this same area through the end of the week and
into the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
