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AXPZ20 KNHC 201525
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1315 UTC Sun Jan 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will induce a very tight gradient over the area, and increase winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will increase to storm force this morning, then diminish below storm force tonight, and below gale force Mon evening. Seas will peak near 25 ft today during the period of highest winds. Swell generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft seas that will extend up to 700 nm from the source region by Mon evening. Marine interests transiting the Gulf of Tehuantepec should be aware of this gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions. The most recent altimeter pass indicated seas of 13 ft near 15N94W. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details.

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico today. This will support strong to near gale force gap winds through the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to minimal gale force are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo late tonight into Mon morning, with seas building to 12-13 ft by Mon afternoon. Strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight through Tue night increasing to near gale force early Mon morning. Fresh winds will also pulse across the Gulf of Fonseca late tonight into Mon morning. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located near 09N75W to 06N80W to 06N90W to 05N96W. The ITCZ continues from 05N96W to 05N120W to 04N140W. No significant convection is noted.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section for more details on the ongoing storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, moderate north to northwest winds along the offshore waters off Baja California combined with long period NW swell is producing 8 to 9 ft seas over the waters off Baja California based on latest altimeter data. Seas will slowly subside today from N to S. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters on Mon morning. This swell event will spread across the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California through Tue night.

Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin north of the area is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds across the Gulf S of 28N with seas near 8 ft. Winds and seas will diminish later today as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Another ridge will build over the Great Basin early on Tue, leading to the return of strong winds along the entire Gulf through the middle of the week. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights of 8 to 9 ft over parts of the Gulf by Tue evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the area and the equatorial trough will maintain strong to near gale force gap winds across Papagayo and Panama through at least Tue. A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please, see Special Features section for more details.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across the NW corner of the forecast area, and extends from 30N132W. The front will dissipate S of 30N later today. High pressure in the wake of the front, currently located near 32N143W, will move NE over the next couple of days extending a ridge across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly W of 125W. In addition, expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of Punta Eugenia on Mon, and N of 25N W of Baja California on Tue.

$$ GR

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