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870
AXPZ20 KNHC 171455
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1358 UTC Fri Aug 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Lane centered near 11.4N 132.9W at 1500 UTC, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Lane is expected to intensify, and move W of 140W into the central Pacific Sat night. See latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W extending north of 05N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted west of the wave axis, from 12N to 15N between 95W and 103W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 113N from 05N to 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 108W and 115W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08.5N86.5W to 07N95W to 10.5N109W to 10N115W to 13N122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N E of 80W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging is west of the offshore waters area will support gentle to moderate NW winds will remain gentle to moderate through early next week.

No major gap wind events expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with nocturnal northerly drainage flow around 15-20 kt expected tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will meander near 09N the next few days. Winds on both sides of the trough axis will be moderate or weaker. The only exception is in the Gulf of Papagayo, where winds will pulse to moderate to fresh each night.

Long-period SW cross-equatorial swell impacting Central America and offshore zones is producing seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas will diminish today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Lane.

Otherwise, ridging will extend from NW to SE across the waters N of the convergence zone for the next several days. Gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed swell will prevail.

$$ AL

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