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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210930
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N84W to 04N103W. The ITCZ continues from 04N103W to 04N123W to 08N131W to 08N140W. No significant convection is observed near the convergence zone.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends across the southern part of the Gulf of California. The front is expected to dissipate later this morning. Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern Baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29N Thu night and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and weakens. High pressure N of the area will support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula today accompanied by NW swell of 8 to 12 ft seas N of 25N. This area of high seas will spread SE across the offshore waters W of Baja this evening then decay through Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20- 25 kt late Thu night and Fri morning, with seas peaking around 8 ft during this short gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Sun morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered well N of the area ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger high pres arriving by Thu evening. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical waters W of 115W.

Long period NW swell dominates the area N of 13N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft from 12N to 20N W of 120W Fri and Fri night. This area will slowly shift westward on Sat and Sun.

$$ Mundell

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