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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1500 UTC Fri Feb 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 03N110W. It resumes from 03N122W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are noted within 90 nm S of the ITCZ between 97W and 100W. An upper level trough extends across the forecast waters from southern California SW to near 02N120W. Upper level diffluence ahead of this trough is creating a large area of moderate to isolated strong convection within an area bounded by 03N119W to 15N113W to 15N104W to 02N107W to 03N119W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An dissipating cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to 25N124W. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte as well as the northern Gulf of California. Large NW swell associated with the front is spreading into the waters off Baja California Norte, with seas peaking near 14 ft. The fresh to strong winds will diminish to 20 kt or less today. Seas will continue to propagate along the length of the Baja peninsula while slowly subsiding. By Sat morning, seas 8 ft or greater will cover the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas will then subside below 8 ft Sun.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin Sun, with gale conditions possible Sun night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun, pulsing to strong tonight and Sat night. Winds will then strengthen Sun night through Tue night.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas less than 5 ft. Wind will increase slightly Mon night through Tue night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 9 ft range. NW swell is propagating across the waters N of 23N E of 132W. The swell will continue to propagate southward, with seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters N of 20N and E of 130W by late tonight before starting to subside. Another set of NW swell will propagate into the NW part of the discussion area Tue.

$$ AL

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