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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150940
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm force winds extending as far S as 15N95W will persist this morning, with winds to 40 kt then persisting through sunrise on Fri. Gale conditions should end around sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through at least late Tue night. Max seas of 22 ft are forecast downstream, while seas 8 ft or greater, primarily due to the NE swell mixing with cross-equatorial SW swell, will spread out across the waters from 03.4S to 14N between 90W and 115W by late Fri. Seas should diminish below 8 ft on Sun night, but continue downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave has its axis from 04N133W to 15N132W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama to 08N88W to 06N102W, where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues NW to 09N121W to 09N131W through a weakening tropical wave to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 06N to 13N between 117W and 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec...refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Fresh N winds, with seas to 6 ft, are expected N of 30N today. Moderate to fresh N winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are forecast across the entire gulf through tonight.

A NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican waters W of 104W with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast through the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Strong NE winds, with seas building to 10 ft downstream near 10N87W, are expected through Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly flow is expected N of 12N between 87W and 90W, including Gulf of Fonseca, through early Fri. Northerly swell from a Gulf of Tehunatepec gap event will propagate into Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Thu morning.

Moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section for swell propagating outward from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A ridge is meandering from 32N135W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh to locally strong trades and 7-9 ft seas are observed N of the ITCZ west of 110W. These conditions are forecast to shift westward and slowly diminish today.

A cold front will reach from 32N138W to 28N140W late Fri night accompanied by fresh westerly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas.

$$ Mundell

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