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AXPZ20 KNHC 280856
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Tue Jan 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 06N86W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 06.5N116W to 07N133W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 NM N of the ITCZ between 119W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are peaking near 13 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat.

A ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of California.

A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico the middle of the week, reaching the Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strengthening winds. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to near gale conditions. A progressive weather pattern will see this front rapidly shift across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico by early Thu, with high pressure following the front. This will veer winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico and diminish winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama and in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed night into Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1032 mb is centered N of the area near 32N130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Fri, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start to shift NE Fri. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend.

Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these seas through the week.

$$ AL

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