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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Mon Sep 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Kiko is centered near 17.2N 123.1W at 16/0900 UTC moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Kiko remains a small but dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Numerous strong convection is occurring within 45 nm SW semicircle. Elsewhere, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between 121W and 125W. A westward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with an area of low pressure centered near 10.5N106.5W. Recent satellite wind data depicted fresh to locally strong winds in the SE and NW quadrants of this system. Conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form within the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east described below, and further development after that time is not anticipated. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a tropical wave near 96W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a high chance during the next five days. Please see the Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 96W south of 17N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 95W and 98W, and from 08N to 12N within 60 nm east of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is near 107W south of 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N within 90 nm west of the wave axis.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 10N90W to 12.5N102W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10.5N106.5W, then resumes from 13N126W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N134W to 11.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 240 nm of the monsoon trough between 85W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N west of 136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends across the offshore waters west of Baja California. Light to gentle breezes prevail across these waters, while gentle SE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California per recent satellite wind data. Farther south, fresh to locally strong northerly winds were noted across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are expected to diminish later today. Earlier altimeter data showed 3-5 ft seas over the waters between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes.

Distant high pressure NW of the region will build toward the Baja California waters early this week, supporting moderate to perhaps locally fresh NW flow over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through mid week. Modest SW swell from distant Hurricane Kiko will continue impacting the Baja offshore waters today, then subside by Tue. Looking ahead, a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of the week off the coast of Mexico and could produce hazardous marine conditions in the offshore waters. Local marine interests should continue to closely monitor the latest NHC products.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Very active weather persists across the Central American offshore waters with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the wake of a tropical wave near 96W. Moderate to locally fresh SW flow prevails south of the monsoon trough, generally south of 10N, per overnight satellite wind data. Seas across this region are likely in the 6-8 ft range based on earlier altimeter data. Fresh S to SW winds will persist for the next several days with seas to 8 ft in mixed SW swell and locally generated wind waves.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information about Hurricane Kiko, as well as the potential for additional tropical development later this week off the coast of Mexico.

A high pressure ridge over the northern waters will maintain moderate NE winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 130W through Tue as Kiko continues moving westward. Weak low pressure near 13N134W is producing fresh to locally strong winds and 8-9 ft seas. This feature is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next couple days before being absorbed by Kiko.

Elsewhere, low pressure near 10.5N106.5W is producing fresh to locally strong winds and 8-10 ft seas, primarily in the SE quadrant. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A broader area of seas to 8 ft is occurring roughly from 07N to 11N between 94W and 108W in association with enhanced SW monsoon flow in the vicinity of two tropical waves.

$$ Reinhart

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