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690
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 98W moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm off the coast of Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico, and from 12N to 15N between 102W and 105W.

A tropical wave is near 116W moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 115W and 125W.

A tropical wave is near 138W moving west at 20 kt. Isolated showers are from 05N to 06N west of 138W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 11N100W to 11N113W. The ITCZ extends from 11N117W to 09N130W to 07N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 09N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 97W and 105W, and within 210 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W and 134W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California peninsula is maintaining moderate N to NW wind flow across most of the adjacent offshore waters where seas remain in the 4 to 5 ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain relatively unchanged through Mon morning as the ridge persists offshore. However, winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the coast during the evening hours through Sun night mainly in the region between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. A broad area of low pressure will develop along California and across the SW CONUS late on Mon, which will weaken the ridge and allow offshore wind speeds to briefly diminish through mid week.

Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring over the southern half of the Gulf of California and will persist through tonight. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds will then resume along most of the gulf Mon morning, however will diminish again to gentle speed at night except N of 29N. Long period SW swell will reach the Mexican offshore waters late today, but seas are expected to remain in the 5-6 ft range through the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the weekend and early next week.

Long period SW swell will propagate NE across the southern waters today, and seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Another round of S to SW swell will move into the southern waters Tue night, once again resulting in 8 ft seas off the coast of Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the ridge and the ITCZ west of 120W. Seas in this region are generally 5-7 ft based on the latest altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the weekend and early next week as a couple of tropical waves moves south of the ridge.

Long period SW swell will continue moving NE across the high seas east of 120W this weekend. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater south of the Equator through the middle of next week, as reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by Mon night. Expect 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue. Elsewhere, NW to N swell will impact the far northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Wed night with seas likely building to 8-10 ft north of 28N.

$$ Ramos

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