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080
AXPZ20 KNHC 250308
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jun 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 14.5N100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-19N between 96W-107W and seas range between 8-10 ft in this area. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A gale warning has been issued in anticipation of gale force winds developing Fri. This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico this weekend, and interests in those areas should monitor its progress for development. In addition to strong winds and large seas near this system, there is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding along the mountainous coastline from Guerrero to Jalisco. This is in the same general area that experienced heavy rainfall from Dolores the past weekend.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to low pressure near 14.5N100.0W 1008 mb to low pressure near 14N108W 1011 mb to 16N105W to 06N127W. The ITCZ extends from 07N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-15N between 78W- 96W, from 07N-19N between 96W-107W, and from 12N-16N between 108W-115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on developing low pressure with a high probability of developing into the tropical cyclone.

E to SE winds of 20-30 kt prevail within 90 nm NE of the low currently near 14.5N100W. Seas range between 8-10 ft within this area of strong winds accompanying this low. Farther north to 18N, gentle to moderate E to SE breezes prevail, with 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of SW and NW swell.

Gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail offshore of Baja California with seas of 4-5 ft. Similar southerly winds prevail inside the Gulf of California. High pressure will begin to build across the area from the NW into the weekend to freshen the wind flow across these waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle easterly breezes prevail N of the monsoon trough along 10N, while light to gentle SW to W winds prevail S of the trough. Slight to moderate seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo tonight. Moderate SW swell will impact the waters off Ecuador, Colombia and into western Panama and Costa Rica, through Fri before fresh SW swell arrives Fri night through Sat to raise seas to 6-8 ft through the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 20N, centered on a 1026 mb high near 43N136W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds north of 10N and west of 125W.

$$ ERA

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