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AXPZ20 KNHC 212115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2042 UTC Wed Feb 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 02N94W to 02N102W. The ITCZ continues from 02N102W to 03N120W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N to 11N W of 127W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern Baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29N Thu night and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and weakens. High pressure building NW of the region will then bring fresh to strong NW winds to the central and southern Gulf of California this weekend, with seas building to about 5-7 ft.

High pressure currently N of the area will continue to support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 25N through tonight. This area of high seas will spread SE across the offshore waters W of Baja this evening then decay through Thu. The high pressure will become reinforced on Fri behind a weakening cold front, which will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte Fri through Fri night, spreading offshore the remainder of Baja California Fri night and Sat, with seas building to 8-9 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20- 25 kt late Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking around 8 ft during this short gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 91W through Sun morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered well N of the area supports a ridge that extends SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger high pres arriving by Fri behind a dissipating cold front. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 8 ft dominates the area N of 09N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 12 ft roughly from 10N to 25N W of 120W Fri and Fri night, with the area of swell 8 ft or greater expanding S to 06N. This area of swell and strong winds will slowly shift westward on Sat and Sun.

$$ Latto

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