000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280240
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
America will continue to funnel winds across the Chivela Pass
producing N to NE gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu
morning. The event had peaked, but was still producing 40-45 kt
peak winds and 15-16 ft peak seas this evening. Ship 9V524
reported NE 35 kt at 20 UTC over the western part of the Gulf.
These gap winds are also large in extent as they reach 12N100W
with fresh to strong E winds. There will be a brief reprieve over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Thu afternoon into Fri afternoon,
while the gap winds reduce to moderate to fresh. But a new strong
cold front pushing across the Gulf of America will herald
another round of Tehuantepecer gale conditions beginning Fri
night. These winds may peak as severe gales with seas as much as
18 ft Sat afternoon and evening. And by the end of the forecast
period on Sun, N to NE gales are likely to still be occurring.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details
on this event.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends near the border of Panama and Colombia
at 07N78W to 06N87W. The ITCZ continues from 06N87W to beyond
04N140W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 06N-10N
between 118W-125W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec
through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for
more details.
A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure centered at
33N122W to 15N105W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are funnelling
through the Gulf of California with 2-5 ft seas. Aside from the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of
the Mexican waters are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas in NW
swell. No significant deep convection is occurring.
For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region,
high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is helping to force
moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California before
diminishing Sat night. Large NW swell will reach the waters west
of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of
Papagayo region this evening with seas 5-7 ft. N moderate to
fresh winds are also observed over the Gulf of Panama with seas
3-4 ft. Elsewhere, the strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event
is forcing NW to N swell of up to 15 ft across the Guatemala and
El Salvador waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds
are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the W
Caribbean is helping to force the fresh to strong NE to E gap
winds over the Papagayo region through Fri morning. After a brief
reprief Fri afternoon to Sat afternoon, these NE to E gap winds
will resume over the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun night.
Gale-force winds are even possible Sun night. The same high
pressure is forcing moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf
of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing very large NW to N swell
spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should
diminish some by tomorrow morning. However, large swell should
continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepecer
should again produce large to very large NW to N swell over
Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into at least Sun night
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure centered at
33N122W to 15N105W. A weak cold front extends from 30N130W to
21N138W withn another high pressure of 1023 mb behind the front
at 31N134W. The rather weak pressure gradient between the highs
and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing generally only
moderate to fresh NE trades. A surface trough extending from
20N129W to 12N130W is supporting fresh to strong NE winds within
180 NM east of the trough as well as scattered moderate
convection. Large NW swell is impacting our NW corner, northwest
of a line from 30N135W to 25N140W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft in
mixed swell.
For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will
enhance the trades causing a larger area of fresh to strong NE
winds and seas 6-8 ft from tomorrow through Fri. The large NW
swell will continue moving souteastward reaching 10N by Fri and
gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will
reach 30N140W with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the
boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it
moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large
NW swell will accompany the cold front on the weekend.
$$
Landsea
