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AXPZ20 KNHC 170918
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0918 UTC Sat Nov 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds extending as far S as 14.5N95.5W, accompanied by seas to 13 ft, will gradually diminish through late this morning. Strong to near gale winds will then pulse through late Sun morning. Near gale force northerly winds will resume on Sun evening and continue through late Mon morning, then develop again on Mon evening and continue through Tue morning. Model guidance is hinting at minimal gale force conditions developing again briefly on Tue night.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends W off the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 07N78W then across the northern Gulf of Panama to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 09N84W to 06N95W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 06N95W to 08N110W to 08N120W to 09N136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 08N between 100W and 103W, from 09N to 12N between 109W and 115W, from 07N to 09N between 114W and 116W, from 07N to 10N between 120W and 123W, from 07N to 09N between 129W and 136W, and from 08N to 13N to the W of 137W in the vicinity of a surface trough.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: refer to the Special Features section for the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds along with seas of 2 ft or less prevail. Moderate NW winds will develop across the entire gulf waters on Sun night and Mon, then becoming light and variable again Tue and Tue night.

A weak NW to SE ridge extends across the Mexican offshore waters W of 100W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow forecast around the meandering ridge through the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds, with seas building briefly to 8 ft well downstream, are expected through the middle of next week.

Light to locally moderate northerly flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, while moderate southwesterly monsoonal flow, with 4 to 6 ft seas, is forecast S of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Long period northeasterly swell is mixing with cross-equatorial swell across the waters S of 14N between 92W and 116W. This swell will propagate W reaching across the waters S of 15N between 105W and 124W on Sun, then gradually subside to less than 8 ft by the middle of next week.

A ridge is meandering from 32N130W to beyond 22N116W. Fresh trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, currently observed from 06N to 19N W of 122W, will subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon.

A cold front is entering at 30N140W and will be accompanied by a fresh SW-W-NW wind shift, and 7 to 10 ft seas. The front will weaken early next week, but still reach the Baja Peninsula on Wed. The associated NW swell will subside to less than 8 ft late Mon.

Another round of NW swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will reach 30N140W late Sun night, with yet another set Tue afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will result in strong W winds N of 30N between 125W and 140W on Wed. Strong NE trades are also forecast from 15N to 22N W of 135W by early Wed.

$$ Lewitsky

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