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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: Gale force northerly winds continue across and well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. An overnight scatterometer pass indicated gale force winds to 40 kt, with winds to 20 kt extending all the way to 10N97W. Winds have diminished very slightly since this time and are expected to fall below gale force before noon. Seas generated by these winds are producing an area of 8 ft or greater wave heights that extends SW from the Gulf to near 09.5N99W. Winds are forecast to further diminish to 20 to 25 kt by Sun morning, and then become variable at 15 kt or less Sun night through the early part of the coming week. Please read the Pacific High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFEP2 and under the WMO header FZPN03 KNHC for more specific marine details.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 09.5N75W TO 08.5N86W TO 06.5N98W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N99W TO 08.5N110W TO 06N125W to beyond 01.5N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N east of 100W, within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 108W and 140W, and from 10.5N to 12.5N between 87W and 92.5W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad and weakening ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, while a surface trough continues along the Baja California peninsula this morning. The pressure gradient between these features supports moderate to fresh NW winds N of Punta Eugenia and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia. Seas have subsided slightly this morning to 5-7 ft. These marine conditions are expected to persist over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue to affect the waters N of Punta Eugenia, with seas to 8 ft in NW swell Sun through Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are expected.

Gulf of California: Winds will briefly increase across the northern part of the Gulf this evening. At that time, expect SW to W winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas generally less than 4 ft. Otherwise, the current pressure pattern is expected to generally produce gentle to moderate SW to S winds into early next week, with afternoon seabreeze influences.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect. Please see the Special Features section above for details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W tonight through Mon night, with seas building to 7-8 ft. Winds will be strongest during the overnight and early morning hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Moderate to fresh winds are expected the remainder of the forecast period with seas below 8 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh northerly winds will briefly affect the Gulf of Panama by Sun night, then mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds will prevail across this area, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in long period SW swell.

Light to gentle winds will dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters, with seas of 4 to 5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends SE across the forecast waters from a 1029 mb high pressure located near 37N138W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds that covers the waters from the ITCZ northward to about 20N W of 124W. The high pressure will move southward while strengthen some. This will keep an area of fresh to strong winds roughly from 06N to 20N W of 130W over the next couple of days. Seas will remain in the 8 to 9 ft range.

$$ Stripling

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