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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220945
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N88W to 04N93W. The ITCZ continues from 04N93W to 03N102W to 04N114W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 115W and 123W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge anchored NW of the area and a low pressure system over Colorado is supporting fresh to strong NW winds along northern Baja California and the Gulf of California.

Gulf of California: Strong NW winds in the Gulf will continue through Thursday. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will support wave heights ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in parts of the Gulf by this evening.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Another gap high wind event is expected to commence across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night as a strong cold front moves through the western Gulf of Mexico, with winds quickly reaching gale force, and continuing through Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure NE of the area will support strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo, and to a lesser extent, the Gulf of Panama into the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge dominates the eastern Pacific Ocean north of 15N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ, and mainly west of 125W. A surface trough may develop and deepen along 130W by mid-week. The GFS global model is most aggressive for a deeper trough and higher winds. Other models show trough development, but lighter winds associated with the trough.

$$ Mundell

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