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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120936
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 400 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico has decreased, however environmental conditions still appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of this week. The low is forecast to move WNW well offshore the coast of Mexico, and further development appears unlikely by Sunday when the system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions. Regardless of development, gale force winds are likely Sat and Sun for the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 96W north of 04N, moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the monsoon/itcz section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 108W from 07N to 20N, moving west at around 10 kt. There is a 1009 mb low associated with this wave, which is described in more detail in the Special Features section above.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N95W to 14N106W to 12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 100W, from 07N to 16N between 104W and 110W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low pressure located several hundred nautical miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico with a high chance of tropical cyclone formation.

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low pressure in the special features, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail in the Gulf of California and the Baja offshores while light to gentle variable winds are forecast for the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters starting this evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are in the Papagayo region while gentle to moderate S to SW winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5-6 ft across both the Central America and Ecuador offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on Sat. Moderate winds will resume on Sun and continue through the remainder forecast period. Mainly moderate S to SW winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase the seas in this region Sun night and will continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the middle of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a low pressure system located several hundred miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a tropical depression today or Sat. Regardless of development, gale force winds are expected SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun.

The remnant low of Howard prevail near 24N126W at 1013 mb. Peak seas are currently near 8 ft and associated winds are around 15-20 kt. No deep convection is present. The remnants are forecast to dissipate by Sat morning.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough and W of 118W. Moderate NE to E winds are N of 20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon and 20N where seas are 7-8 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 130W. Otherwise, mainly moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no major changes are expected elsewhere through early next week.

$$ Ramos

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