000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040405
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat May 4 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 09N83W to 10N98W to 08N109W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N109W to 07N125W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection from 03N to 09N E of 89W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A broad subtropical ridge extends to just west of the offshore
waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over the Baja California continues to support
gentle to moderate N-NW winds off the peninsula with combined
seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia. Along
the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and seas to 3
ft. Gentle to moderate W-NW winds persist elsewhere along the S
and SW Mexican offshore waters with moderate seas in mixed S and
NW swell.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja
Peninsula will increase to moderate to fresh speeds Sat evening
into Sun. Winds will further increase to fresh to strong speeds N
of Cabo San Lazaro Sun evening through Mon morning as a cold
front enters the Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of
California. Fresh to strong SW winds are also forecast for the
northern Gulf of California Sun evening into early Mon morning.
Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshores will then
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Wed
night. Large NW swell with seas to 10 ft will follow the front
and affect the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening
into mid week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across the Costa Rica
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are ongoing over
much of the area, excpet for light to gentle winds in the Gulf of
Panama. Southerly swell continues to generate seas of 4-7 ft
across the basin, highest between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands.
For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week,
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador through tonight.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern
California and the deep tropics result in moderate N winds north
of 23N and east of 127W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are
expected in the rest of the basin north of the ITCZ and west of
130W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, winds and seas will start to diminish starting
early Sat as the high pressure north of the area dissipates
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will move south of
30N late Sat, then gradually weaken as it moves southward across
the waters north of 24N through Mon. Farther south, southerly
swell of 8-9 ft will get almost as far north as the equator
between 110W and 120W through Sun, before subsiding.
$$
Ramos
