000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190846
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jan 19 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build
over northeastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico late
today following the passage of cold front across the region.
This pattern will support strong to gale force gap winds across
the Tehuantepec tonight into Mon, and subsequently rough to very
rough seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon
evening. These winds and seas will diminish through early Tue as
the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward ahead of the next
front moving into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An even stronger
area of high pressure will build over northeast Mexico and the
western Gulf, supporting strong gales or even storm force winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week, accompanied by a
broad area of rough to very rough seas downstream.
Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs
in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in
late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may
occur as early as September, and as late as May. The monthly
distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number
of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur
most often in January.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to 08N93W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 04N105W to 10N130W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 126W and
129W. Scattered moderate convection from 02N to 04N between 81W
and 88W, and within 90 nm north of ITCZ between 120W and 130W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 16N
between 137W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Feature section for information concerning
gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A ridge extends southeastward from 30N125W to Socorro Island .
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California, as noted in a recent
ship observation, and fresh to strong NW winds off Cabo
Corrientes, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Light and variable winds
are noted across the north and central parts of the Gulf of
California, while gentle to moderate NW winds dominate the
remainder of the Gulf. Seas are of 1 to 3 ft. Moderate to fresh
NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen across the offshore
waters of Jalisco and Colima off Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to
moderate W to NW winds prevail across the remainder of the
Mexican offshore waters where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range.
For the forecast, in addition to the situation in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec discussed in the Special Features section, high
pressure building over the Great Basin will support fresh to
strong NW winds over the Gulf of California Mon night through mid
week, with gale force winds possible Tue morning. Elsewhere, a
ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja
California this weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds
with moderate seas. Long period NW swell will reach the waters
north of Punta Eugenia tonight into early Mon morning building
seas to 8 ft there. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will persist elsewhere through early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to
fresh N winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate
breezes persist elsewhere from Ecuador to off Central America.
Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Papagayo.
For the forecast, fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail in
the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong gap wind pulses mainly
at night through mid week. Light to gentle winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by strong
gale force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon and Mon
night, then again Wed and Wed night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
110W. Farther south, a surface trough breaks up the ITCZ between
west of 130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and and the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 8
to 11 ft from 10N to 20N west of 120W. In addition, the pressure
gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system located
near 28N145W is producing an area of fresh SE winds north of 20N
and west of 135W with seas of 8 to 11 ft with NW swell. Gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, the fresh SE winds north of 20N and west of
135W will increase to fresh to strong winds later today between
the deepening low pressure to the west and the ridge to the
northeast. Large NW swell will continue to propagate into the
waters west of 130W, and mix with shorter period seas associated
with the trade wind flow over the deep tropics. Altogether,
expect 8 to 12 ft seas across much of the area west of 125W
through through the early part of the week. These wave heights
will subside to 8 to 9 ft, and diminish in areal extent through
mid week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.
$$
Christensen
