000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111548
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 11 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event is
ongoing across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to
build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in
Mexico, and over the western Gulf of America. Winds are currently
reaching minimal gale force, based on latest scatterometer data,
and these conditions are expected to last through Mon morning.
Building seas to around 13 ft are expected with this event today,
with the plume of seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as
100W on Sun.
Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season
occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring
in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events
may occur as early as September, and as late as May.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N100W to 07N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N125W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W.
Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted N of
05N between 78W and 82W, including the entrance to the Gulf of
Panama, from 08N to 12N between 96W and 103W, and from 05N to
09N between 108W and 121W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the
offshore waters of Baja California, and light to gentle winds
elsewhere outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
over open waters outside of the Tehuantepec area, except 1 to 3
ft in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a
weak cold front will move into Baja California Norte by late
Tue, then dissipate. High pressure building behind the front will
enhance the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja California
peninsula, along with large NW swell. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A cluster of moderate to locally strong convection is near the
entrance to the Gulf of Panama. The most recent scatterometer
satellite pass confirmed moderate gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo, and combined seas are likely 4 to 6 ft in that area.
Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the
Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to fresh
to strong speeds at night from Sun night through mid week.
Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early
next week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
where gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas
generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the
western offshore waters off Guatemala on Sun. Slight to moderate
seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere over the
next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A weak ridge covers the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 110W
20N, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 06N to 20N
west of 120W. Combined seas in that area are 6 to 9 ft, with a
component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft
are noted elsewhere, in a mix of swell.
For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west
coast and Baja California Norte through late Tue. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will
support moderate to fresh NE winds north of 05N and west of 120W
through early next week. Looking ahead, 8 to 9 ft NW swell will
move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and Wed,
before dissipating.
$$
GR
