000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300748
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N102W to 07N117W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N117W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east
of 100W, and from 03N to 10N between 120W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula,
extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere, including in the Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 6-7 ft over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft
or less in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, a broad ridge extending southeastward across
the Baja waters will weaken slightly across the region through
the remainder of the week, leading to a gradual decrease in winds
and seas across the Baja waters. W to SW winds are expected
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds will develop across the
northern Gulf of California tonight and Thu nights. A cold front
will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach the
central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant increase in
winds and seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, with
moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle winds are
elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night
across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before winds
diminish through the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly winds
across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly through Thu,
then become light and variable into the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of
120W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate
anticyclonic winds dominate the remaining waters N of the ITCZ
and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N to NE swell. S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft
prevail.
For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently
dominating the region W of 110W will begin to weaken and shift
SE ahead of an approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge
will result in a decreasing trend in winds and wave heights N of
the ITCZ through end of the week. A cold front will enter the NW
waters Fri evening, and move E-SE and reach from 30N121W to
26N140W by Sat evening. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and
building seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected behind the front.
$$
AL
