257
AXPZ20 KNHC 010745
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 1 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N112W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N112W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 98W,
and from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the discussion
waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-6 ft
range over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of
California, seas are in the 1-3 ft range, except reaching 5 ft at
the entrance to the Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area will slowly
weaken and shift southeastward through the remainder of the week,
leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas across the Baja
waters. S to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds
will pulse across the northern Gulf of California tonight. A cold
front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach
the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant
increase in winds and seas across the Baja offshore waters, and
strong westerly gap winds across the Gulf of California through
Mon morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range in fading S to SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse tonight
across the Papagayo before winds diminish during the upcoming
weekend. Gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will
become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to
occasionally moderate S to SW winds will persist across the
waters between the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia into
Sat.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 19N and W of 113W. Seas
over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle anticyclonic
winds dominate the remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W,
with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough,
light to gentle winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will begin to
slowly weaken and shift southeastward through Fri, ahead of an
approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge will result in a
decreasing trend in winds and seas N of the ITCZ through end of
the week. A cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening. The
front will reach from Southern California to 30N122W to 26N140W
Sat evening, and from central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun
evening. Strong high pressure building behind the front will
promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas
of 8 to 12 ft behind the front through the weekend.
$$
AL
