000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310815
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N106W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N106W to 04N120W to 07N133W to beyond 04N140W. A
second ITCZ extends from 03.4S89W to 03.4S96W to 02S104W to
03.4S111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02N to 08N between 130W and 139W. Similar convection
is from 02S to 03.4S between 89W and 99W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 86W and 93W, and from
06N to 09N between 95W and 104W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A small plume of fresh to strong N gap winds are in the
immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a lingering locally tight
pressure gradient and nocturnal drainage flow, along with 5-7 ft
seas in the zone. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the
remainder of the waters. Moderate seas dominate the offshore
waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish through the morning. Moderate to fresh
SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to
fresh to strong by this evening before diminishing by early Wed.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo San Lucas and near
Cabo Corrientes at times through mid-week. Moderate to fresh NW
winds will dominate offshore Baja California by the end of the
week as high pressure builds W of the peninsula. Moderate seas
will dominate the offshore through the remainder of the week,
except building locally to rough off Baja California Norte Fri
through Sat night. Slight seas will prevail in the Gulf of
California, except briefly to moderate in the northern Gulf with
the fresh to strong winds.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds prevail over the Papagayo
region per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas building to
around 8 ft early this morning. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds
prevail from the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula.
Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Slight seas are
offshore Colombia, with moderate seas elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh NE-E winds will pulse to strong across
and downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W through early
Wed with locally rough seas, with winds becoming moderate to
fresh thereafter. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate N-NE winds will
continue to pulse to fresh early today and tonight. Slight to
moderate seas will prevail through tonight. Large S-SW swell will
spread into the waters from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos
Islands by Wed morning, and reach the remaining area waters and
Central American coasts on Thu. This swell will build seas to
rough from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through Thu.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The southern extent of a pair of fronts are over the NW waters.
These fronts along with a trough 180-360 nm offshore Baja
California have weakened high pressure with light to gentle
winds dominating the waters N of 19N. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere over the open waters. N to NE swell generated
by an ended gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
extending southwestward beyond the offshore waters are subsiding.
Otherwise, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail across the
remainder of the waters.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the open
waters through mid-week as weak high pressure across much of the
area slowly builds into the Baja California waters. A series of
weak frontal boundaries will move into the NW waters and weaken W
of 130W throughout the week. Moderate seas will continue
otherwise through the early part of the week. Large southerly
swell will move into the waters S of the Equator late tonight
into Wed, and reach 10N on Thu, gradually subsiding thereafter.
Looking ahead, The pressure gradient may tighten N of 05N and W
of 110W by the end of the week increasing trades to moderate to
locally fresh, with seas building locally to rough as a result.
Northerly swell may build seas to rough just S of 30N by late Thu
night into the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
