000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010937 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025
Corrected to add Special Features Section
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico
and the Gulf of America in the wake of the front. Strong winds will
funnel through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds shortly thereafter by Sun evening
with seas building to 11 ft. Gales will then prevail through Tue
night into Wed morning, however strong to near gale force winds will
gradually diminish through Thu evening.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to a 1011 mb low near
13N110W to 09N122W to 08N133W. The ITCZ stretches from that point
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is ongoing from 02N to 11N E of 87W, from 04N to 11N between 89W
and 96W, from 08N to 16N between 100W and 125W, and from 07N to
13N between 118W and 132W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Northerly winds from a building ridge in the Gulf of America
continue to support a fresh to strong gap wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec with strong winds reaching as far south as 14N.
Seas are rough to 9 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is
supporting moderate or weaker winds, except for light to gentle
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas over the SW Mexican
offshores are 6 to 8 ft in SW swell. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW
swell are along the Baja California offshore waters, except N of
Punta Eugenia where seas are 7 to 8 ft in decaying NW swell. In
the Gulf of California seas are slight.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by
this evening. A cold front will move across the Gulf of America
on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico and the Gulf
of America in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds shortly thereafter by Sun evening
with seas building to 11 ft. Gales will then prevail through Tue
night into Wed morning, however strong to near gale force winds
will gradually diminish through Thu evening. Otherwise, a set of
large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte offshore
waters by Sun morning, and spread to Cabo San Lazaro by Sun night
before gradually subsiding through Tue evening.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo where seas are 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere across the Central America offshores.
Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SE to S, and seas are rough to 9 ft in long
period SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas
are expected across the Papagayo region through Thu. Cross-
equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional
waters and will gradually subside on Sun. The next strong
Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate to fresh N
winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador Mon through early Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N134W extends a ridge
across the E pacific subtropical waters, supporting moderate to
fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas over the tropical
waters W of 130W with rough seas to 9 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds are elsewhere W of 113W along with moderate seas. East of
113W, long-period SW swell is supporting 8 to 9 ft seas south of
the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters
W of 120W into early next week. Cross-equatorial SW swell E of
113W will subside by Sun evening. Otherwise, new large NW swell
will enter the far NW waters today, with rough to very rough
seas spreading southeastward through Tue before subsiding.
$$
Ramos
