000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170855
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0835 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP91):
A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days or so. The system is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico through the weekend. There is a medium
chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1008 mb low pres (EP91) near 13N99W to a 1010 mb low
pres near 10N118W and to 07N124W. The ITCZ stretches from
07N124W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 17N and east of 107W. Similar convection is
noted from 07N to 11N and between 108W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for information on EP91
and the potential tropical development off the coast of southern
Mexico.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to
locally fresh NW-N winds are occurring in the offshore waters of
Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere
across the Mexican offshore waters, excluding Invest 91E,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and locally
rough seas will prevail offshore of Baja California through this
morning. Moderate NW winds are forecast in the central and
southern Gulf of California Sat evening through Mon. Looking
ahead, a broad area of low pressure, EP91, is centered offshore
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days or so. The
system is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
through the weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical
development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development,
increasing winds and building seas are possible offshore of
southern Mexico through this weekend. Fresh to strong N gap winds
and locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Mon through late next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the
offshore waters of Central America. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicates that fresh to strong winds are present in the
strongest storms. Mariners can also expect higher seas in these
areas. The satellite-derived wind data also captured moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough, with the
strongest winds occurring off Ecuador. Seas in these waters are 5-7
ft. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas are noted
in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to a broad
disturbance (EP91) in the area.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW winds and
locally rough seas are expected in association with EP91 well
offshore of Guatemala possibly through the weekend. Otherwise,
moderate SW winds and moderate seas will occur south of the
monsoon trough into early next week, with gentle winds and
moderate seas prevailing to the north.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical
eastern Pacific waters. Latest satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to fresh NE-E winds over much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough and west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft,
with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the far
western waters. Over the eastern waters, fresh SW winds and moderate
to locally rough seas are noted in association with Invest 91E.
Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate
seas are occurring west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds and
rough seas will occur north of the monsoon trough into this
weekend as high pressure prevails to the north. Winds will
diminish slightly for the second half of the weekend. A new NW
swell will support rough seas north of 25N tonight through Sun
morning. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong SW winds and
locally rough seas will occur in association with EP91 north of
03N and east of 110W through the weekend. Looking ahead,
increasing winds and building seas are expected over the northern
waters early next week as a weakening cold front moves southward
along the California coast.
$$
Delgado
