000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270305
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed near 114W from 02N to 17N, moving
westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
01N to 15N between 110W to 119W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 16N between
82W and 101W, and from 00N to 20N and W of 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between a 1004 mb low over SE California
and surface ridging to the west-southwest of the Baja California
offshore waters is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds N of
Cabo San Lazaro with moderate seas in northerly swell. Strong NW
winds are likely N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate N to NE winds are
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with moderate seas
in southerly swell, except slight seas in the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will continue
offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through
midweek. Afterward, NW winds will diminish to moderate speeds as
the center of high pressure associated with the ridge shifts
westward while slightly weakening. Pulsing fresh to strong gap
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will resume Sun morning and
continue through Wed due to a surface trough coming off the
Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds are
forecast elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo
as a tight pressure gradient prevails over western Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon
and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate
seas in S swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the
Central America offshore waters with moderate seas in S swell.
Scattered showers are offshore of Panama and Costa Rica.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue
to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Moderate E
winds associated with this gap wind event will affect the outer
Guatemala and El Salvador offshores through the forecast period.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands as well as S of the monsoon through
Thu.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds are noted north of 25N and
west of 125W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE winds and
rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SE
winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Seas are
generally moderate.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
north of the monsoon trough to 25N, expanding farther north
through the weekend as high pressure strengthens north of the
area. Rough seas generated by fresh winds will occur from 10N to
15N west of 130W though Sun, then rough seas may develop south
of the monsoon trough on Sun night through early next week.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.
$$
ERA
