000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070406
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jun 7 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection persist near low pressure that is located a
couple of hundred miles south of Puerto Angel in southern Mexico.
1008 mb low pressure (Invest EP92) is analyzed along the trough
near 12N97W. Strong to near- gale force winds are likely within
90 nm of the coast of western Oaxaca overnight accompanied by
rough seas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a short-lived tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally
west- northwestward just off the coast of Mexico possibly
reaching near Socorro Island early next week. Interests in
southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system. Gale warnings and rough to very rough seas are forecast for the
offshore waters of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Cabo
Corrientes Sat through early Mon. This system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
A low pressure system (Invest EP91) located several hundred
miles south of southwestern Mexico, near 10N106W with a pressure
of 1007 mb is gradually becoming better defined. Associated
scattered moderate convection is limited over the area from 12N
to 14N between 104W and 108W. Recent altimeter satellite data
from 02 UTC indicated seas to around 8 ft continue within 180 nm
to the southwest of the low pressure. Gradual development of
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
generally west- northwestward. This system has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to low pressure near
10N106W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 12N
east of 90W, and from 12N to 14N between 104W and 108W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone
development.
A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California,
with occasional fresh winds south of Punta Eugenia. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere off southern Mexico and in the Gulf
of California. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft off Baja California
primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 ft primarily in long-period SW
swell off southern Mexico, with the exception of the strong
winds related to Invest EP92 as described above under Special
Features. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for
a short-lived tropical depression to form off southern Mexico
described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to strong
winds with building seas over the offshore waters off western
Oaxaca and Guerrero overnight, with the range of these seas of 7
to 10 ft in south to southwest swell.
These adverse conditions will expand westward across the offshore
waters toward Cabo Corrientes through Sun as low pressure
farther to the south off the coast possibly becomes a tropical
depression. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest
statements from the National Hurricane Center on the possible
tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell are expected
elsewhere outside the impacted waters of the Special Feature low
pressure (Invest EP91) through the weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas
across the offshore forecast waters.
For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish into Sat.
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere.
Moderate seas in cross- equatorial swell are likely over the
regional waters into this weekend. Abundant deep tropical
moisture will persist across the region maintaining a high
likelihood of additional showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
Strong high pressure of 1030 mb is located well north of the
area near 42N141W, while a persistent trough, supported by broad
upper troughing, is analyzed from central California southwestward
to 23N130W. Moderate NE winds along with 8 to 9 ft NE swell
persist east of the trough north of 25N. Seas are reaching 8 ft
along 10N between 135W and 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5
to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell persist elsewhere.
For the forecast, guidance indicates that a trough will form
within the area of the moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds during the weekend and shift westward. The gradient
between the trough and the high pressure to the north should
extend the duration of the moderate to fresh northeast winds
through late in the weekend, and possibly into early Mon even
as the trough shifts west of 140W. The seas to 8 ft in north
to northeast swell with these winds appear that they will linger
as well. The 8 to 9 ft seas in northeast swell over the northwest
part of the are should decay by early Sat.
$$
Christensen
