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AXPZ20 KNHC 241511
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1443 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 03N86W to 01N104W to 02N111W. The ITCZ continues from 02N111W to 04N118W to 04N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 105W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within area bounded by 10N130W to 19N117W to 19N110W to 09N118W to 10N130W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong NW winds across the waters W of Baja California Norte will spread southward along the central Baja Peninsula today. Strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will shift S across the southern gulf waters this evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast tonight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and Tue nights.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1042 mb centered NW of the area near 42N147W extends a ridge SE to near 16N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ and west of 122W. The pressure gradient will further tighten early next week as the high pressure center shifts closer to the forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of fresh to strong winds across the forecast waters, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue.

Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday night, building seas to 8 to 16 ft seas across the Pacific waters north of 22N between 117W and 132W by Tue night.

$$ AL

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