844
AXPZ20 KNHC 040317
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 06N96W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N96W to 05N115W to 04N133W. A second ITCZ is
mainly south of the Equator and runs from 02S87W to 03S115W to
beyond 04S140W. No significant convection is noted along these
boundaries.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge centered well
northwest of the area and lower pressures across Mexico support
moderate to fresh northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja
California. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest
seas occurring northwest of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh
NW winds and slight seas are found in the northern and central
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate
seas are noted in the southern Gulf of California.
In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California this
weekend into early next week generating gentle to moderate NW to
N winds. NW swell will also bring locally rough seas off Baja
California Norte through Sat morning. Fresh NW to N winds will
pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight and Sat with seas
building to 4-5 ft. In the long term, strong to near gale-force N
gap winds along with rough seas are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Sun night through midweek next week.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A strong subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda supports fresh
to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across
the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, moderate to locally
fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of
Panama. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds and moderate seas
dominate the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
during the nighttime and early morning hours in the Papagayo
region and downwind to about 88W through midweek next week.
Residual southerly swell will maintain moderate seas off Ecuador
and near the Galapagos Islands through this weekend. Afterward,
seas should gradually subside next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough centered just west of the far northwest waters
and an upper level trough combine to produce widespread
cloudiness and isolated showers over much of the waters north of
20N. At the surface, the basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure system centered well north of the area. The pressure
gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep
tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of
6-8 ft north of 06N and west of 110W. In the remainder of the
basin, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient around the southern periphery
of the ridge and the trough over the NW corner of the forecast
region will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
to locally rough seas N of the trough through this evening, then
winds will become gentle to moderate by tonight. The trough will
move toward the NW. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by
Sun night. A new set of NW swell will follow the front, forecast
to extend from 30N137W to 23N140W by Mon morning. Seas will briefly
build to 8 or 9 ft behind the front by Tue morning.
$$
Delgado
