000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202036
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 20 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 101W from 03N northward to
Guerrero, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 101W and 106W.
A tropical wave has its axis near 131W from 05N to 18N, moving
westward at around 5 kt. A broad 1012 mb low pressure is along
the wave at 13N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 14N between 125W and 132W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama at 09N77W to
09N110W to low pressure near 13N131W to 12N137W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 82W and 95W
and from 04N to 12N between 106W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends along the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula from a low pressure over the Colorado River
Valley, inducing moderate to locally fresh SE winds in the
northern Gulf of California. W of the trough, some moderate NW
winds are within about 60 nm of the west coast of Baja
California. Fresh to locally strong gap winds continue in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas in offshore waters are 3 to 5 ft, except 6 to 8 ft in and
downwind of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. In the Gulf of California,
seas are 2 to 4 ft in the N of 28N, and less than 2 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail in the
northern Gulf of California into Tue night. Pulsing fresh to
locally strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec into Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is
expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico,
for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas will prevail. Winds may freshen W of Baja
California by mid- week as the pressure gradient tightens
slightly.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf
of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft.
Moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and
The Galapagos Islands . Light and variable winds are elsewhere
across the Central America offshore waters. Seas over the
remainder of the waters are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest
swell, except mixed with fresh NW swell offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador due to ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds west of
the area.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to
east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through early
Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds associated with these gap
winds will continue to affect the outer offshore waters of El
Salvador and Guatemala into late week. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The
Galapagos Islands.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to
around 20N and 115W. A tropical wave is south of the ridge near
131W, with a 1012 mb broad low along the wave at 13N. Winds near
this wave and low are moderate to fresh, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the wave is also
allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist
from 13N to 22N between 125W and 140W. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South of the monsoon,
winds are moderate and seas to 7 ft in southeast to south swell,
to around 8 ft near 03.4S120W.
For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 131W is
located in an environment where conditions are only marginally
conducive for development during the next day or so as the
system moves westward at 10 kt. There is a low chance of tropical
cyclone formation before it reaches unfavorable conditions in a
couple of days. Otherwise, the moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades will change little north of the monsoon trough and
the ITCZ through early today, then gradually shift to the western
part of the area as the gradient between the tropical wave and
the high pressure tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach
around 10 ft with the tighter gradient over the western part of
the area Mon through Tue night with increasing winds to strong
speeds. Seas will linger around 8 ft south of the Equator and
west of 105W through the early part of this week.
$$
Konarik
