Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220327
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W to 02N94W to 02N101W. The ITCZ continues from 02N101W to 07N126W to 08N140W. No significant convection is observed near the convergence zone.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern Baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29N Thu night and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and weakens. High pressure building NW of the region will then bring fresh to strong NW winds to the central and southern Gulf of California this weekend, with seas building to about 5-7 ft.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell of 8 to 10 ft seas N of 25N overnight. This area of high seas will decay through Thu. The high pressure will be reinforced behind a weakening cold front on Fri, which will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night, spreading offshore the remainder of Baja California Fri night and Sat, with seas building to 8-9 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20- 25 kt late Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking at 7-8 ft during this short gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Mon morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered N of the area supports a ridge that extends SE across the forecast waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger high pres arriving Fri behind a weakening cold front. The gradient between the high and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 8 ft dominates the area N of 09N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 11-12 ft roughly from 10N to 20N W of 120W Fri and Fri night, with the area of swell 8 ft or greater expanding S to 06N. This area of swell and strong winds will slowly shift westward on Sat and Sun.

$$ Mundell

Home