000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142143
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 93.5W from northwest of the
Galapagos Islands at 01N to 15N near SW Guatemala, moving
westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below
in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 103.5W from 01N to 16N
offshore SW Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby
convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 121.5W from 02N to 18N,
moving slowly westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is
described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 134.5W from 03N to 18N,
moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure near
northern Colombia at 10N76W to across Costa Rica to 09N85W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N85W to 09N93W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 09N94W to 10.5N103W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 10.5N105W to 10.5N121W, then resumes west of
a tropical wave from 10N123W to 10N133.5W, then resumes west of
a tropical wave from 10N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 102W and
109W, and from 09N to 13N between 125W and 137W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate SE winds are occurring across the northern Gulf of
California as troughing prevails over the Gulf of California
near the Baja California Peninsula, with gentle SE winds south
of there. Slight seas are in the Gulf, except higher near the
entrance. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
offshore waters of Mexico under weak surface ridging. Moderate
seas prevail across the open waters.
For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri as high pressure
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to
strong Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient
tightens further, resulting in building seas to rough there.
Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico
through midweek, then returning this weekend. Fresh to locally
strong S to SE winds will develop and pulse over the northern
Gulf of California late tonight into early Tue and continue
through midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert
Southwest. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight in
the Gulf of California.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia.
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas
in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American
waters, except locally rough south of the Equator and offshore
Ecuador.
For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through late week and into the
weekend as high pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of
America, building seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh E
winds will extend through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala
and El Salvador through midweek, and then again this weekend.
Moderate to fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama
midweek. A S to SW swell will continue to propagate through the
South American waters through the middle of this week, promoting
rough seas offshore of Ecuador and Colombia.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1037 mb high pressure well north-northwest of the discussion
waters near 44N142W extends a ridge across the waters north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
in the belt from 11N to 21N west of 130W, and from 10N to 15N
east of 130W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of
the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are
south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W, and moderate
east of 100W. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail
across the waters south of 07N. Moderate seas in mixed swell
elsewhere, locally rough from 11N to 13N near 140W.
For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and mainly moderate
seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week
as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific, locally fresh to
20N. Mainly moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell
will propagate through the southern waters promoting rough seas
south of 08N, through mid-week, then decaying through the end of
the week. A new N swell will arrive and lead to rough seas north
of 25N by midweek, decaying by the end of the week.
$$
Lewitsky
