000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130248
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue May 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N105W to 08N120W.
The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 06N
between 80W and 85W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection from 08N to 12N between 95W and 105W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong gap winds, along with 5 to 7 ft seas, persist in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening, but are diminishing.
Farther north, a weak cold front moving through southern
California is approaching Baja California Norte. Gentle to
moderate breezes are evident elsewhere across Mexican offshore
waters. Wave heights are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California Norte and
3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish through tonight. The weak cold front
will move into Baja California Norte through Tue, then
dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula through mid
week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE winds persist across the Papagayo region to
about 90W with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate
winds are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light
and variable winds are observed elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 5 ft
dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected
in the Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at
night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere mainly light
to gentle winds are expected through early this week before
increasing south of the monsoon trough midweek. Slight to
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere
through the middle of the week. Expect moderate to rough seas in
long period SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands
Wed through Fri.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....
A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the
ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft
range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell.
For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west
coast and Baja California Norte through Tue. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front, and this pattern will support
moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W
through early this week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW swell
will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W Tue and
Wed, before dissipating.
$$
Christensen
