AXPZ20 KNHC 240408

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory.


A surface trough extends from 04N90W to 01N103W to 03N109W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues NW to 06N120W to 05N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within area bounded by a line from 15N135W to 14N105W to 02N126W to 15N135W.



Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: a W to E ridge extends across the offshore waters from 22N116W to 14N100W. Fresh to strong NW winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed N of 27.5N W of Baja California Peninsula. These conditions will spread southward to along 24.5N and spread seaward to 180 nm early Sat before beginning to diminish. Associated seas should subside to less than 8 ft by late Sun night, with another batch of strong NW winds, accompanied by large NW swell, arriving at 30N120W late Mon night. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 to 15 ft seas N of 24N on Tue evening, and moderate N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas w of the entire Baja Peninsula late Wed.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: gentle onshore flow expected during the daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours for the next several days.

Gulf of California: fresh to strong NW winds currently across the far northern waters will spread southward across the waters N of 26N late Sat. Strong NW winds are forecast across the waters S of 28.5N on Sat evening, with seas building to 8 ft across the longest fetch waters. Except fresh NW flow across the entire gulf waters on Sun. The pressure gradient will quickly relax on Sun Mon, with gentle winds gradually clocking to S, except increasing to strong along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue with brief strong NW winds behind the front on Tue night.


Gulf of Papagayo: fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds are expected across the western Gulf of Panama overnight. Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast on Sat and Sun nights with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and Tue nights.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N.


Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 115W through Sun when the pressure gradient is forecast to further tighten. Expect a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue.

Northerly swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will continue to propagate S across the waters from 25N to 32N between 117W and 130W through Sat night before beginning to subside.

Around round of strong northerly winds will reach along 32N between 120W and 130W on Mon night. Although the winds will diminish to a fresh N breeze on Tue, expect 8 to 16 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 22N to 32N between 117W and 132W on Tue night.

$$ Nelson