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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220920
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N90W to 02N101W. The ITCZ continues westward from 02N101W to 05N140W. No significant convection is associated with the convergence zone boundary.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across Baja California Norte into the northern Gulf of California. Model guidance shows fresh westerly winds N of 29N today ahead of the front, then becoming moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail across most of the Gulf of California through Fri. High pressure building NW of the region will bring fresh to strong NW winds to the central and southern Gulf this weekend, with seas building to 5-7 ft.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell to 8 ft N of 25N today. The area of high seas will decay through Fri. Reinforcing high pressure behind a dying cold front will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte Fri, spreading southward Fri night and Sat, with seas reaching 8-9 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20- 25 kt early Fri, with seas peaking at 7-8 ft during the event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Sun, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the early morning hours.

Fuego Volcano: Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a minor eruption is occurring this morning. Ash from this eruption is trailing off to the west toward the Pacific, but the ash cloud appears to be more diffuse over water. Hazy conditions and a minimal restriction to visibility is possible within 30 nm of the coast of Guatemala today.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front stretches from northern Baja California to 27N119W to 26N129W. Reinforcing strong high pressure behind the front as it weakens will support fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 7-8 ft dominates the area N of 08N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 11-12 ft roughly from 10N to 20N W of 120W through Fri night, with the area of swell and strong winds slowly shifting west Sat and Sun.

$$ Mundell

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