000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132009
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1008 mb low pressure
near 12N92W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between
78W and 83W, and from 12N to 14N between 93W and 95W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A sharp trough extends from the lower Colorado River valley into
the Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong
SW winds across the northern Gulf waters. To the west, the
gradient between this low and high pressure to the northwest is
leading to moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with
related NW swell generating seas of up to 8 ft impacting the
waters around Guadalupe Island and the offshore areas beyond 120
nm off Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore
waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas dominate.
For the forecast, the trough over the northern Gulf of California will
support fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf through
tonight. Northerly swell near Guadalupe Island off Baja
California Norte will subside through this evening, but build
back into the region Tue night into Wed following a weak cold
front moving into Baja California and the Gulf of California. To
the south, broad low pressure is developing off Guatemala. Little
development is expected over the next few days while the low
drifts to off southern Mexico, but strong northerly gap winds
will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue. These
higher winds may eventually aide in environmental conditions that
are more conducive for tropical development of the low later in
the week. There is a medium chance that a tropical depression
forms while the system moves to offshore southern Mexico toward
the end of the week or this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the
coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala, north of 1008 mb low pressure
area centered near 12N92W. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail
with seas of 5 to 7 ft from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and 4 to 5
ft from Panamanian offshore waters southward to Ecuador.
For the forecast, the low pressure off Guatemala will remain
stationary through the early part of the week, and little
development is expected. Environmental conditions area likely to
become more conducive for tropical development of the low later
in the week, and there is a medium chance that a tropical
depression forms while the system moves N or NW offshore
Guatemala or southern Mexico toward the end of the week or this
weekend. At a minimum, there may be fresh winds and rough seas
off El Salvador and Guatemala Thu and Fri as the low moves
through the region.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with
moderate to locally fresh N winds across these waters. Seas are
5 to 7 ft in this region, except for 8 to 9 ft north of 25N
between 115W and 125W, where N swell is propagating. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the swell north of 25N between 115W and 125W
will subside late today. A cold front will move southeastward
across the waters north of 20N Tue through Thu. A new round of 8
to 10 ft swell will follow the front over the waters north of 25N
tonight through Wed night. Looking ahead, high pressure building
north of the area behind the front will support moderate fresh
NE winds north of 10N and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther
south, weak low pressure is likely to form along the monsoon
trough between 115W and 120W through Wed.
$$
Christensen
