000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160410 CCA
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025
Corrected satellite imagery transmission time
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP91): A broad 1007 mb area of
low pressure is near 12N96W. Disorganized numerous strong
convection is to its north from 12N to 14N between 95W and 97W.
Currently winds are up to around 20 kt with stronger winds to
the north of it associated with an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec
gap wind event. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or over the weekend. The
system is forecast to move little during the next couple of days,
but a slow west- northwestward or northwestward motion near the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is expected by the
weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near
11N75W to 11N86W to low pressure near 12N96W 1007 mb to
09N105W to 11N114W to 08N121W to 09N133W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 09N to 12N between 85W-87W, also within
180 nm south of the trough between 89W-92W and from 08N to
10N between 96W-100W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for information on a
broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, that is near the coast of
southern Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
A dissipating cold front extends from the southwestern U.S.
to the central Gulf of California, to across central Baja
California to 24N120W to near 24N132.5W. Broad high pressure is
building in the wake of the front. High pressure is bridging
across the front. Associated northwest swell is producing
seas of 6 to 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte. Seas are
5 to 7 ft elsewhere west of 108W. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as downwind
from the Gulf to near 15N along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Mostly
light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere, with
seas of 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California north of its entrance.
For the forecast, northwest swell moving through the waters W of
Baja California will gradually subside through Thu morning.
Fresh to strong, locally near gale-force this evening, northerly
gap winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early
Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure, Invest
EP91, is offshore southern Mexico near 12N96W. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression could form late this week
or over the weekend. The system is forecast to move little during
the next couple of days, but a slow west-northwestward or
northwestward motion near the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico is expected by the weekend. Regardless of development,
expect the potential for increasing winds and building seas.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please read the Special Features section above for information on a
broad area of low pressure, Invest EP91, that is offshore
southern Mexico just W of the offshore waters of Guatemala, with
the potential for tropical cyclone formation.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the offshore
waters, locally fresh south of 06N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft primarily
in south to southwest swell.
Active convection is noted across the waters as described above
with locally higher winds and seas possible.
For the forecast, in association with the Special Features
broad area of low pressure, expect increasing winds and building
seas, mainly west of the offshore waters of Guatemala. Winds may
freshen south of the monsoon trough as it lifts northward
through the remainder of the week, which could lead to a slight
build up of seas. Expect tranquil marine conditions across the
waters late in the weekend into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weakening cold front extends from SW Arizona to across Baja
California Norte through 30N114.5W to 24N126W to 26N124W. Broad
high pressure is building in the wake of the front. Moderate are
found behind the front, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Winds are moderate S of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ, except to fresh E of 105W to the S of the
axis and north of 04N. For seas, northerly swell of 6 to 9 ft
associated with the front is north of 23N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in
mixed swell south of 23N. A weak trough is analyzed just north
of the monsoon trough from near 18N117W to 11N116W. No significant
convection is occurring with this feature.
For the forecast, the dissipating cold front will gradually
decay to a remnant frontal trough by early Thu, then dissipate by
the end of the week. Winds will locally freshen behind the front
as high pressure builds in across the area. Rough northerly
swell in the northern waters will continue to press southward
through Thu while decaying. Farther south, weak low pressure is
likely to form along the trough just north of the monsoon trough
between 115W and 120W through tonight as depicted in the global
models. Looking ahead, a reinforcing set of long- period
northwest swell may arrive by the end of the week into the weekend
over the northwest and west-central portions of the area maintaining
seas to a rough state, with yet another set possibly arriving early
next week.
$$
Aguirre
