020
AXPZ20 KNHC 021550
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Nov 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A frontal system is moving
across the Gulf of America. A strong ridge will settle across
Mexico and the Gulf in the wake of the low/front. Strong winds
will funnel through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec
will develop, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by
this afternoon and gale force winds by this evening with seas
reaching very rough ranges through Tue. Gales will prevail
through Tue night, however strong to near gale force winds will
gradually diminish through Thu evening.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N128W. The ITCZ
stretches from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is ongoing within 200 nm on either
side of the boundaries.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting
moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, except for slight
seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, a cold front will continue to move across the
Gulf of America today and a strong ridge will settle across
Mexico and the Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong winds will
funnel through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
develop, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by this
afternoon and gale force winds by this evening with seas
reaching very rough ranges through Tue. Gales will prevail
through Tue night, however strong to near gale force winds will
gradually diminish through Thu evening. Otherwise, long period NW
swell will move into the Baja California Norte offshore waters
this morning, and spread to Cabo San Lucas by tonight before
gradually subsiding through Tue evening. A second set of large NW
swell is forecast to enter the waters N of Punta Eugenia late
Thu.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo
with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds and
moderate seas are elsewhere south of the monsoon across the
Central America offshores. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the SE to S, and seas are
moderate SW swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas are
expected to pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu. A strong
Tehuantepec gap wind event starting this afternoon will result
in moderate N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas in the far
western offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon through
Tue night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface ridge extends across the E Pacific subtropical waters.
Long period NW swell continues to spread across the waters N of
20N and W of 120W ahead of a frontal boundary NW of the region.
Rough seas are associated with this swell event. Moderate or
weaker winds and seas are elsewhere N and south of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough W of 100W.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters
W of 120W into early next week. Large NW swell will continue to
spread SE through Mon night and then gradually subside late Tue.
A cold front will enter the NW region Tue night preceded by fresh
to strong winds and rough seas. Otherwise, shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Baja California Peninsula is currently disorganized. Any
additional development of this system appear unlikely as it moves
slowly westward across the central part of the eastern Pacific
during the few couple of days.
$$
ERA
