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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1431 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N76W to 05N81W to 06N93W to 05N99W. The ITCZ continues from 05N99W to 03N108W to 09N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 10N between 129W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm either side of a line from 06N86W to 02N92W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As of 1200 UTC, a cold front is passing over the southern Gulf of California from 28N110.5W to 25.5N111W. Gale force NW winds over the northern Gulf of California have subsided. The active portion of the front will move E of the area today, with marine conditions continuing to improve. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will generate fresh to strong NW winds spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte through tonight, accompanied by NW swell causing seas to build to between 8 and 12 ft. This area of 8-ft seas will continue to spread across the offshore waters W of Baja through Wed with seas measuring 8-10 ft. The area of 8 ft seas will reach as far SE as the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Strong high pressure building to the N of the discussion area will generate a large area of fresh to strong winds from 12N to 23N W of 115W Wed night through Fri. This will maintain an area of corresponding seas running between 8 and 12 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected over the next couple of days, with seas generally under 4 ft. Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt Thu night into Fri, with seas building to 8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W through the forecast period, with seas building to 9 ft during the overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh N winds are generally expected across the western Gulf of Panama through Sat.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb centered well N of the area near 37N140W ridges SE across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger 1042 mb high pres arriving near 45N145W by Thu evening. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical waters W of 115W.

Long period NW swell dominates waters roughly to the N of 12N and W of 110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the remainder of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of Cabo Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft or greater will envelop the waters N of 08N W of 110W by Thu evening.

$$ CAM

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