000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100907
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0850 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N87W to 03N98W. The
ITCZ is analyzed from 02N99W to 01N120W and beyond 02N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 17N between
111W and 137W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing
S of the equator between 86W and 93W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1008 mb surface low over the Sebastian Vizcaino Bay is
shifting eastward. Northwest of the low, a broad surface ridge
prevails and extends to 120W. This is producing a tight pressure
gradient across the southern semicircle of the low and also
between the low and 130W, resulting in fresh to strong W to NW
winds over the SW semicircle of the low, extending to
approximately 22N from the low center. Rough seas to 8 ft in NW
swell are within these winds. Elsewhere across the northern
semicircle of the low, winds are moderate or weaker. In the Gulf
of California, the proximity of the low is supporting moderate
to fresh SW to W winds and seas to 4 ft. Between Cabo San Lucas
and the offshore waters of Manzanillo, winds are moderate to fresh
from the NW, and seas are moderate to 6 ft in NW swell. Light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the aforementioned low will continue to move
eastward before dissipating over Central Baja California and the
Gulf of California today. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas
associated with this low will continue to affect the waters
between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia this morning. Moderate
to fresh SW to W winds across the central and southern portions
of the Gulf will diminish later this morning. Behind the exiting
low, a ridge will build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo
Corrientes, while new NW swell enters the waters of Baja
California Norte. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected between
Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres
Marias, from late today through Wed evening. Northerly winds will
also freshen inside the Gulf of California Wed through Thu
morning. Otherwise, a strong gap wind event is forecast to begin
across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, with winds reaching gale-force
Thu evening, then diminishing below gale-force by late Fri
morning. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across all the
Mexican offshores Sat and Sat night.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft
continue across the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near
91W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas
prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 04N. Light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere N of
the equator. Otherwise, cross-equatorial SW swell continue to
spread across the Galapagos Islands offshores with seas to 9 ft.
For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to
strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as
high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also
pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Mainly
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build
across the regional waters through tonight, before subsiding
Wednesday.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1029 mb remains well NW of the region. An
associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 14N and W of
108W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh NE winds
from 04N to 20N between 110W and 140W. Rough seas of 7 to 8 ft
in mixed swell prevail with these winds. A 1008 mb low pressure
is nearing to coast of central Baja California, with fresh to
locally strong W to NW winds extending southward to 23N.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in
mixed swell.
For the forecast, the low pressure will move eastward and
dissipate over Baja California and the Gulf of California
today. New high pressure will develop NW of Baja California today,
and extend a ridge across the E Pacific subtropical waters. As a
result, new NW swell will move into the waters W of the Baja
California offshores to about 130W tonight and Wed, and subside
Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross-equatorial swell will
continue to propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far N as
20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed night
through Fri.
$$
Ramos
