000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080315
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 08 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from near 10N86W to 02N98W to 01N105W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ to 01N120W to 04N135W and to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection exits from 05N to 10N
between 128W-140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered well to the NW of
the forecast area near 37N142W. A broad ridge extends
southeastward from the high toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
A surface trough is just W of Baja California. It extends from
29N114W to 25N116W. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates
a weak cyclonic circulation along the trough axis near 27N117W.
Light to gentle winds currently dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds,
except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in NW swell over the outer
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Latest scatterometer
satellite data also shows gentle to moderate NW winds in the the
Gulf of California along with a few winds of 15 to 20 kt over the
far northern part of the Gulf, namely N of 30N and W of 114W.
Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, generally light winds and moderate seas in S to SW
swell are present.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to
form along a surface trough located just W of Baja California by
late tonight. The low will shift slowly eastward into early next
week while dissipating. The tightening pressure gradient between
the low center and the ridge to the W will promote fresh to
locally strong NW to N winds and building seas to around 8 ft
across the outer forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. An
area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas is forecast to
persist across the southern semicircle of the low center on Mon
impacting the offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta
Eugenia. Winds and seas will diminish by Mon night as the low
moves inland Mexico. By Tue, a ridge will rebuild toward Baja
California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
relatively lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh NW winds
between Los Cabos and Cabo Corriente, including Las Marias
Islands Tue night into Wed. Looking ahead, the next gap wind
event in the Tehuantepec region may be possible beginning on
Thu, with winds increasing to gale force as a ridge develops
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico
in the wake of a new cold front that will be moving across the
Gulf of America.
Of note, it appears that the surface low will form from a large
cut-off low pressure system that will drop south along Baja
California. The surface low will linger until the closed upper-
level low shifts east-northeastward across Baja California into
the United States during the early part of the upcoming week.
Before it does that, it may trigger-off scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity over the central Baja California offshore
waters.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are in the
Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W while gentle to
moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the Gulf of Panama
and downstream to about 05N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell are elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Papagayo region nightly and into the mornings through Thu as high
pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate N
winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama into next week. Mainly
light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through early next
week. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is
expected to reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands early next week, building seas to around 8 ft,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered well to the NW of
the region near 37N142W. Associated broad ridging covers the
waters N of about 15N and W of 118W. The related pressure
gradient is sustaining fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 29N
between 132W and 135W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds.
Elsewhere, winds are of moderate or weaker speeds. Seas across
the remainder of the open waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell,
except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell N of 10N and
W of a line from 30N119W to 23N120W to 17N126W to 10N133W
26N118W to 18N130W to 10N138W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will
continue to dominate the majority of the western and central
waters N of 15N and W of 120W through Mon while it weakens
a little as a frontal system approaches from the NW. The cold
front is expected to stay N of 30N during this time. As
previously mentioned, the ridge will rebuild toward Baja
California by Tue.
$$
Aguirre
