000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072133
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 06N84W to 03N100W to 01N111W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N111W to 03N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 83W and 88W,
and from 05N to 10N W of 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of the
forecast area near 37N140W. A broad ridge extends southeastward
from the high toward the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough
is analyzed just W of Baja California, and extends from 31N118W
to 24N111W. Scatterometer data reveal a weak cyclonic circulation
along the trough axis near 26N114W. Light to gentle winds currently
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 7 to
9 ft in NW swell over the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San
Lazaro. Gentle to moderate NW winds are noted per scatterometer
data along the Gulf of California, with some 20 kt wind barbs N
of 30N and W of 114W. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, generally light winds and
moderate seas in S to SW swell are present.
For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is expected to
form along the surface trough located just W of Baja California
by this evening or tonight. The low will shift slowly eastward
into early next week while dissipating. The tightening pressure
gradient between the low center and the ridge to the W will
promote fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and building seas
to around 8 ft across the outer forecast waters N of Punta
Eugenia on Sun. Then, an area of fresh to strong winds and rough
seas is forecast to persist across the southern semicircle of the
low center on Mon, affecting the offshore waters between Cabo
San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Winds and seas will diminish by Mon
night as the low moves inland Mexico. By Tue, a ridge will rebuild
toward Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures over Mexico will support fresh NW winds
between Los Cabos and Cabo Corriente, including Las Marias Islands
Tue night into Wed. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in
the Tehuantepec region is expected to develop by Thu, with winds
increasing to gale force as a ridge develops across the eastern
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a
new cold front moving across the Gulf of America.
Of note, it appears that the surface low will form from a large
cut-off low system that will drop south along Baja California.
The surface low will linger until the closed upper-level low
shifts east-northeastward across Baja California into the United
States.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are in the
Gulf of Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W while gentle to
moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama
and downstream to about 05N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell are elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the
Papagayo region nightly and into the mornings through Thu as
high pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate
N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama into next week.
Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through early
next week. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell
is expected to reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands early next week, building seas to around 8 ft,
except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of
the region near 37N140W. Associated broad ridging covers the
waters N of about 15N and W of 118W. The related pressure
gradient is sustaining fresh to strong N to NE winds W of a line
from 30N125W to 20N135W to 08N140W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with
these winds. Elsewhere, winds are of moderate or weaker speeds.
Seas across the remainder of the open waters are 4 to 6 ft in
mixed swell, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell
W of a line from 30N121W to 26N118W to 18N130W to 10N138W.
For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will
continue to dominate the majority of the western and central
waters N of 15N and W of 120W through Mon while it weakens some
as a cold front approaches from the NW. The cold front is
expected to stay N of 30N during this time. As previously
mentioned, the ridge will rebuild toward Baja California by Tue.
$$
GR
