000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170251
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0235 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP91):
A broad area of low pressure is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression could form during the next
couple of days or so. The system is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico through the weekend. There is a medium
chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to a 1007 mb low pres (EP91) near 13N98W to a 1010 mb low
pres near 07N117W and to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W
to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 06N to 16N and east of 107W. Similar convection is found
from 07N to 11N and between 109W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section for information on EP91
and the potential tropical development off the coast of southern
Mexico.
The subtropical ridge centered near 37N144W extends to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge
and lower pressures in northern Mexico support moderate to
locally fresh N winds in the Baja California offshore waters.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican
offshore waters, excluding Invest 91E, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and locally
rough seas will prevail offshore of Baja California through Fri
morning. Moderate NW winds are forecast in the central and
southern Bay of California Sat evening through Mon. Looking
ahead, a broad area of low pressure, EP91, is centered offshore
of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression could form during the next couple of days or so. The
system is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward or
northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico
through the weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical
development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development,
increasing winds and building seas are possible offshore of
southern Mexico through this weekend.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Scattered moderate convection continues to affect the nearshore
and offshore waters of Central America. Moderate to locally
fresh S-SW winds and moderate seas are found south of the monsoon
trough, with the highest winds occurring off Ecuador. Meanwhile,
moderate to locally fresh W winds are noted in the offshore
waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to a broad disturbance
(EP91) in the area.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong SW winds and
locally rough seas are expected in association with EP91 well
offshore of Guatemala through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate SW
winds and moderate seas will occur south of the monsoon trough
into early next week, with gentle winds and moderate seas
prevailing to the north.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge positioned
near 37N144W and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds, mainly north of 09N and
west of 115W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Over the eastern
waters, fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough
seas are noted in association with Invest 91E. Meanwhile,
moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are
occurring west of 110W.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds and
rough seas will occur north of the monsoon trough into this
weekend as high pressure prevails to the north. Winds will
diminish slightly for the second half of the weekend. A new NW
swell will support rough seas north of 25N Fri night through Sun
morning. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong SW winds and
locally rough seas will occur in association with EP91 north of
03N and east of 110W into early Sat. Looking ahead, increasing
winds and building seas are expected over the northern waters
early next week as a weakening cold front moves southward along
the California coast.
$$
Delgado
