885
AXPZ20 KNHC 242151
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 24 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis is near 100.5W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 07N to 15N between 94W to 110W.
A tropical wave axis is near 125W from 03N to 17N, moving
westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N to 16N between 116W to 127W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N107W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N107W to 12N123W, and resumes from 11N126W to
beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 07N to 15N between 130W and 140W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 85W and
92W, and from 08N to 11N between 114W and 119W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California
through Baja California Sur, while broad ridging covers the
waters offshore of the peninsula. Recent scatterometer satellite
data show moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and 5 to 6 ft
seas offshore of Baja as a result of this pressure gradient.
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as high pressure builds
in the Gulf of America. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds
prevail over the rest of the waters. Altimeter satellite data
show seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell offshore of southern Mexico,
and 1 to 2 ft seas in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, fresh N winds will pulse each night and
morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning. Looking
ahead, sustained strong to occasionally near-gale force N winds
and locally rough seas will occur in this region Sun night into
next week. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NW winds are
expected offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro
tonight through this weekend as the pressure gradient builds
between troughing over the Gulf of California and high pressure
to the west. Locally rough seas in NW swell may accompany these
winds. Winds and seas will diminish early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Earlier satellite imagery showed fresh NE winds occurring in the
Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern
Colombia. Moderate E winds extend beyond the Papagayo region
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Elsewhere, a surface trough extending from 06N83W to 06N91W is
promoting showers and thunderstorms offshore of Panama and Costa
Rica. Gusty and erratic winds and rapidly building seas are
likely near convection. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh S to
SW winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 5 ft
in SW swell are noted through the regional waters.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo into next week as low pressure prevails in
the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E winds will also extend
through the waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala today.
Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds will
occur south of the monsoon trough through this weekend. Moderate
seas in S to SW swell are expected across the Central and South
American waters into next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1023 mb high is centered north of the area near 34N128W, and
surface ridging extends through much of the waters north of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted north of
25N and west of 125W, with seas of 3 to 4 ft observed on recent
buoy data. Farther south, a tropical wave axis is noted near 125W
from 03N to 17N, and the pressure gradient between this wave and
the aforementioned ridge is leading to moderate to fresh NE
winds and rough seas from 10N to 20N west of 115W, strongest near
and west of the wave. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SE winds are
occurring south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Locally rough
seas to 8 ft in SE swell are noted south of 05N and west of 120W,
with seas of 5 to 7 ft occurring elsewhere.
For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N to NE winds
will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 25N today,
with moderate winds expanding farther north this weekend as high
pressure strengthens north of the area. Rough seas generated by
fresh winds will occur from 10N to 15N west of 125W through this
weekend, and additional rough seas may develop south of the ITCZ
this weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast
to develop well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands by this
weekend. Thereafter, some gradual development is possible and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance of formation
within the next 48 hours, and a medium chance within the next 7
days.
$$
ADAMS
