423
AXPZ20 KNHC 271557
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jul 27 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is analyzed near 83W from 05N northward through
Costa Rica into the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 12N between 80W and 89W.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 116W from 02N to 19N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 08N to 14N between 108W to 119W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 15N111W to a 1011 mb
low near 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N
to 18N between 91W and 107W, and from 09N to 13N between 130W
and 140W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1006 mb low has been analyzed near 31N114W, and troughing
extends southeastward from the low through the Gulf of
California. The pressure gradient between these features and
ridging to the west is leading to moderate to fresh NW winds and
4 to 7 ft seas offshore of Baja California, north of Cabo San
Lazaro. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N gap winds and moderate seas
are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tightening pressure
gradient develops between troughing in the Bay of Campeche and
high pressure over east-central Mexico. Otherwise, moderate or
weaker winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore
waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed S and NW swell are noted
offshore of southern Mexico, with 1 to 2 ft seas in the Gulf of
California.
For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force winds
and rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through
midweek as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the Gulf
of America. Strong NE to E winds and rough seas will extend
beyond the Tehuantepec region by early Tue as an area of low
pressure develops and strengthens to the south. Elsewhere, fresh
to locally strong NW winds are expected each afternoon and night
offshore of Baja California through midweek as high pressure
builds to the west. In the Gulf of California, moderate to
occasionally fresh SE winds are expected as troughing prevails
over the region this week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas in E swell are
occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo and across the El Salvador and
Guatemala waters as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia
and a tropical wave passes over Costa Rica. South of the monsoon
trough, generally moderate S to SW winds are occurring. Seas of 3
to 6 ft prevail over the Central and South American waters.
For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E gap winds and
moderate seas will occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon
morning as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Fresh to
locally strong E winds will extend through the waters offshore
of El Salvador and Guatemala through late Mon as an area of low
pressure develops and strengthens to the southwest. Winds in this
region will diminish by midweek. Looking ahead, pulsing fresh to
strong winds look to redevelop in the Gulf of Papagayo late this
week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are occurring north of
the monsoon trough to 25N, generally west of 120W, as ridging
prevails to the north. Locally rough seas brought about by fresh
winds are noted around 05N west of 135W. An area of low pressure
near 10N130W is leading to fresh winds surrounding the low and
rough seas of 8 to 9 ft, as observed on earlier altimeter
satellite data. Farther east, locally fresh winds and rough seas
are noted near a tropical wave analyzed near 116W. Otherwise, a
weak pressure gradient in the northern waters, north of 25N, is
leading to light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, a trough of low pressure well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands could see some gradual development during
the next few days while it moves generally westward around 10
mph. There is a low chance of development of this system within
the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure is forecast
to form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a
couple of days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form late this week as the system moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. There is a low chance of
development of this system within the next 48 hours, and a medium
chance within the next 7 days. Otherwise, widespread moderate to
fresh N to NE winds are expected north of the monsoon trough
this week as high pressure builds to the north.
$$
ADAMS
