000
AXNT20 KNHC 100819
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today,
and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the night-time hours tonight and again Wed night. Seas of 8-12 ft
are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/0000 UTC at least.
Very rough seas are likely with these winds. Please refer to the
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 11N15W, then continues SSW to near 02N21W. Then the ITCZ
extends from 02N21W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 00N to 03N
between 11W and 23.5W, and from 02.5S to 02N between 35W and 49W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Dense Fog Advisory is once again in effect for the NE Gulf
coastal waters until around 1500 UTC with coastal and nearshore
observations reporting fog. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf
waters, with a 1023 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf near
29N84W. Light to gentle SE-S winds are found in the NE Gulf N of
26N and E of 90W along with seas of 1-2 ft, with moderate to
locally fresh E-SE winds and 3-5 ft seas across the remainder of
the basin.
For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the
basin will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern
Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front
will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before
moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the
front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will
build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving
thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trade winds are across the central and eastern
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds
are also observed across the Windward Passage. These winds are the
result of the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the
Atlantic high pressure. Winds are moderate to fresh across the
remainder of the basin, except for light winds in far SW portions
near the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Rough seas of
8-10 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6-8 ft in the remainder
of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in
the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where slight seas are
noted. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic passages. Passing
showers dot much of the east and central portions of the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours Tue night and Wed night. Fresh
to strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse
near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee
of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from
the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser
Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve
slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper-level low is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the waters from 21N to 31N between 34W and 42W. A surface
trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N40.5W to 22N40W.
Fresh to strong SE winds are on the E side of the trough axis, as
well as from 28N to 31N to the W of the trough to 45W. A ridge
continues to dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters, with a 1028 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near
32.5N58W, and a 1035 mb high pressure situated over the Azores.
This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 15N and E
of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Strong to minimal gale-force
N winds are noted per scatterometer data near Morocco. Moderate
to fresh to locally strong trade winds are south of 25N and west
of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the Bahamas and
west of 70W. Moderate to rough seas in E swell are noted in this
region of fresh winds, as well as east of the Lesser Antilles.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over
the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through midweek, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through this afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds can be
expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong
winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold
front. That front will move offshore Thu night with fresh to
strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing
from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure
ridging will build across the basin for the end of the week into
the weekend.
$$
Lewitsky
