605
AXNT20 KNHC 092315
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 9 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
West Atlantic Significant Swell: A long fetch of strong NE winds
are generating very rough seas in the Atlantic offshore of
Florida and north of the Bahamas. A SOFAR buoy located near
29N73W is reporting seas up to 13 ft. These marine conditions
are occurring in the wake of a stationary front that extends from
just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Strong winds and very
rough seas will prevail behind the front into tonight. Winds will
gradually improve Fri as the front drifts eastward and weakens,
but large NE swell will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and
the Bahamas into the start of next week. Fresh to strong winds
are forecast to return Sat night into early next week as the
pressured gradient tightens.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
both areas of significant swell.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 04N17W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to NE Brazil near 02S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 07N b between
10W and 20W, and S of 04N between 20W and 40W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends across the SE of the United States into the Gulf
region. The associated pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong
NE to E winds across the NE Gulf with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3 to 5ft. A few showers
are over the NW Gulf.
For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern U.S.
will support strong NE winds and rough seas across the northeast
Gulf through tonight. This pattern will maintain moderate to
fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas elsewhere across basin
through early next week, except for occasional strong E winds off
western Cuba and off the northwest Yucatan. Locally rough seas
will be in the Straits of Florida late in the weekend into early
next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Only a weak north-south pressure gradient is present across the
Caribbean, as a stationary front reaches the central Bahamas.
As a result, fresh to locally strong E trades are restricted to
only over the south-central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker with
seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NW part of the basin.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity is over the Greater
Antilles. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow is moving across the basin producing brief showers.
For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from
the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and
increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the
south-central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next
week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will commence
south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola
starting Sat night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
a Significant Swell Event offshore Florida in the western
Atlantic.
A stationary front extends from just east of Bermuda near 31N64W
to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms
are occurring mainly ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds
and rough to very rough seas are behind the front while gentle to
moderate winds and rough seas in N swell are up to around 200 NM
ahead of the front. Elsewhere, a strong 1036 mb Azores High is
centered north of the forecast waters at 36N35W with surface
ridging extending toward the NE Caribbean. The large pressure
gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in the vicinity
of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE trades north of 14N
and east of 50W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft E of 50W, and 5 to 8 ft E
of the front to 50W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate with seas 6 to
10 ft in mainly N swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features
section for details.
$$
GR
