AXNT20 KNHC 221803

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC.


A 1018 mb low is presently located NW of the Canary Islands near 29N20W, moving SW with a surface trough extending north to 36N26W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the vicinity of the low extending 60 to 80 nm to the north and east of the low. Meteo France is forecasting near gale to gale for the zone of Canarias until Sunday 23/1200 UTC. The outlook for the next 24 hours calls for near gale to gale for zones Irving, Madeira, Meteor, Canarias, and Tarfaya. See the Meteo France website: meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N18W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04S-03N between 19W-44W.


A 1034 mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N86W producing 15-25 kt NE winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds cover the basin S of 28N between 83W-96W.

Strong NW winds near Veracruz, Mexico and fresh to locally strong N to NE winds over the SE Gulf will subside by this evening. Winds over the basin will diminish through Sun night as high pressure ridges over the northern Gulf. Another cold front will move over the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue, followed by a stronger front Tue night and Wed. By Wed night the stronger front is forecast to be SE of the area. Behind the stronger front, gales are likely over the SW Gulf Wed and Wed night.


As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from E Cuba near 19N74W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N85W stalling to 15N88W. The front is mostly void of precipitation across the Caribbean Sea. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front including the Yucatan Channel. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse each night through Wed night. The cold front will push SE to reach from Hispaniola to Nicaragua by tonight, stall from Puerto Rico to SE Nicaragua Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected W of the front until Mon morning, especially through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Another cold front is likely to move into the NW Caribbean Wed night.


As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 30N58W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 23N. A surface trough is E of the Leeward Islands from 18N56W to 14N57W moving W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1035 mb high is north of the Azores near 42N13W. A 1018 mb low is NW of the Canary Islands near 29N20W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the low pressure. See the Special Features section above.

The S end of the front will slowly shift E to near Puerto Rico by Mon morning. Near gale conditions are expected behind the front today. Low pres developing along the front tonight near 29N61W will produce near gale conditions are possible N of 23N and E of 65W Sun night. Large N swell associated W of the front will spread SE through Sun night and slowly decay. Winds and seas will diminish early next week, then increase over the NW waters Mon night through Wed ahead of the next cold front due to arrive Wed night.

$$ MMT