000
AXNT20 KNHC 050432
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W, S of
11.5N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W S of
18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W, and
continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W
to 02S43.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted S of 05N between 12.5W and 28.5W, and S of 03N between 34.5W
and 50W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds prevail west of 88W along with seas 2 to 5 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas 1 to 2 ft. A
surface trough over the western Gulf is supporting scattered
moderate convection from 22.5N to 26N and west of 91.5W.
For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipated by Tue.
Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf
starting Tue as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds
will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico Tue
night into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern
Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening,
then retreating back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across
the basin from the east.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the
Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the
S central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar
winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into the
weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E
and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary
dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N61.5W to the Central Bahamas
and western Cuba. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection
is near the western Bahamas and north of 26N. Moderate to fresh
NE winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, prevail west of the front.
Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 31N23W. The remainder
of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored
by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N46W. The pressure gradient
between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N
between 31W and 60W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft
range. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft,
generally prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain stationary
into Tue, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold
front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds N of the
front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the boundary weakens,
with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A
weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily
move eastward through the end of the week. High pressure ridging
and a relatively week pressure gradient should prevail by the
weekend.
$$
KRV
