000
AXNT20 KNHC 081021
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 8 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N with
axis near 38W, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of 04N and between 33W and 40W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 01N34W and then from 01S39W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south
of 07N and between 17W and 33W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 29N90W,
then a stationary front continues southwestward to NE Tamaulipas.
Strong showers and thunderstorms are affecting the western Gulf
waters. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin
supporting tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring off northern Yucatan and
the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.
For the forecast, the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
in the offshore waters of the western Gulf will spread to the
north-central and NE Gulf by tonight as the front sinks a bit
farther south. The front will then stall and lift back to the
north as a warm front late tonight thru Sat. Afterward, the ridge
should build back across the Gulf from the east. Winds will pulse
to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun
night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the
northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from north- central
Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by
moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in
the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds
and locally rough seas in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge
across the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over
northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong
easterly trade winds with nighttime pulses to near-gale in the
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through
early next week. Similar conditions are also expected in the Gulf
of Honduras, through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has entered the waters off NE Florida supporting
moderate southerly winds and moderate seas north of 29N and west
of 65W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge. In the far NE Atlantic, a cold front extends
from 31N18W to 27N30W, followed by a dissipating cold front to
30N41W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring
behind the front. Meanwhile, moderate easterly winds and moderate
seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic
east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front off NE
Florida will gradually weaken through Sat as it shifts eastward
north of 28N. Southerly moderate winds ahead of the front occurring
off NE Florida will diminish this afternoon. A stronger cold
front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue,
followed by moderate to fresh winds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are
possible ahead of both fronts. Meanwhile, a surface ridge across
the western Atlantic near 28N65W will support fresh to locally
strong winds off northern Hispaniola might Sat through Mon nights.
$$
Delgado
