230
AXNT20 KNHC 180422
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Mar 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period N swell
generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the
northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through Wed. Expect seas of 12 and 20 ft from 25N to 31N between
16W and 45W overnight. These seas will shift farther southward to
near 23N Wed morning, and then become reinforced with additional
large N swell Wed through Thu. Seas across these northeastern
waters will remain 12 ft and greater through at least Fri night.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W, then curves
southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm N of
the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1025 mb high pressure centered over southern Louisiana is
building across the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the
SE half of the basin, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate
to the NW. Seas are rough where the winds are fresh to strong,
with some very rough seas to 12 ft in the Yucatan Channel.
Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, N to NE fresh to strong winds and rough seas
associated with the passage of a cold front will diminish by Wed
morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across
the region and prevail into the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends across the W Caribbean from 22N82W to
19N88W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front. N
of the front, strong to near gale-force NE winds and rapidly
building rough seas exist. Elsewhere across the NW and SW basin,
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate. Across the
central basin, fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
prevail, with fresh winds and moderate seas farther east.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough
seas will prevail across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and
the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic
exposures and Passages through Wed. The stationary front over the
far NW Caribbean will continue to weaken before dissipating on
Wed. This should decrease the influence from the ridge and allow
winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to
gradually diminish through Sat.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends from 31N71W to the Central Bahamas, then
becomes stationary and continues to central Cuba. A band of
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection exists in the
vicinity of the front mainly W of 66W. Behind the front, moderate
to fresh N winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. E of the
front, an expansive surface trough dominates the basin, anchored
by a 1037 mb high pressure at 38N46W. These is leading to
widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds, with moderate to rough
seas. To the E, the tail end of a cold front extends from 31N18W
to 29N20W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from
31N15W to 25N18W. No significant convection is noted with these
features
For the forecast west of 55W, by Wed afternoon, the front will
stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas. A weak low
pressure system is forecast to develop along the stationary front,
tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong
winds with rough to very rough seas affecting the offshore waters
N of 25N through the rest of the week as this system then
transitions to a cold front and moves east of the area.
$$
ERA
