000
AXNT20 KNHC 180349
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 03N19W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high
center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the western
half of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Latest
buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light
to gentle winds in the eastern portion of the Gulf, with the
exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the far
southeastern part of the basin near western Cuba and in the
Straits of Florida. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft are over the
remainder of the Gulf, except for lower seas of less than 3 ft in
the NE and eastern Gulf sections.
For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place
and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure
gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through
Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a
daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to
support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings.
Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold
front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early
part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits
to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level
trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to
across the eastern portion of Hispaniola. A surface trough is
analyzed from eastern Cuba southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture
east of these features in combination with dynamics aloft related
to the mid to upper-level trough is resulting in an unsettled
weather pattern for the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms prevail E of 67W. The unsettled weather conditions
will continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.
Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest
of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, the surface trough will drift slowly westward
and weaken through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds through the
remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early
next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late-
season cold front moving into Cuba.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A broad surface trough extends southward from near 28N73W to
eastern Cuba near 21N77W. The pressure gradient related to high
pressure of 1023 mb north of the area at 32N48W is generally
providing for light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W and
the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within
this area of winds as noted in SoFar buoy and altimeter satellite
data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8
ft in mixed swell are over the rest of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the
area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.
Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake
of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by
late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before
stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week.
$$
ERA
