000
AXNT20 KNHC 150946
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Liberia near
06N10W, then continues SW to 03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W
to 01S30W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W and 18W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere S of 04N between 10W
and 41W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
across Florida into the northern Gulf. Under the influence of
this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to locally
rough seas are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida. Similar wind speeds are observed off the Yucatan peninsula,
particularly from 20N to 22.5N between 89W and 93W. These winds
are the result of local effects associated with a thermal trough.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are
observed elsewhere, except in the NE Gulf where light to gentle
winds and slight seas are occurring. Cold air stratocumulus clouds
are moving across South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Straits
of Florida into the SE Gulf.
For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and maintain
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through
Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will
prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula
each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the
northern Gulf Sun and Sun night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the
Atlantic southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring over the northern Leeward Islands. A band-like of
multilayer clouds, associated with strong westerly winds aloft,
extends from western Venezuela across the SE Caribbean and the
Windward Islands into the tropical Atlantic. Some convective
activity is also noted in the Windward Islands. A ridge north of
the Bahamas is forcing fresh to strong NE winds with seas 5 to 7
ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to
locally strong winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are also occurring just
north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas of 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds
and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the
week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas
will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through
tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the
week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface trough
that extends from 31N63W southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Farther
northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 30N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda-
Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting with
the surface trough to cause fresh to strong NE winds from Bermuda,
across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft
east of the Bahamas per altimeter data. A moderate pressure gradient
between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity
over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and
moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters.
Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north
of 27N and east of 16W with seas of 8 to 10 ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned surface trough
will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will remain nearly
stationary through Fri while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through
tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the
trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking
ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast
Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and
building seas in the wake of the front.
$$
GR
