000
AXNT20 KNHC 071652
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of
8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida
into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds
with moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, including the
Straits of Florida. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. A few
showers are developing over the far western Gulf.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will settle in the Gulf
through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to
fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas
will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front may impact
the northwestern Gulf Wed night with increasing winds and seas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.
An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are across the east and central
Caribbean, in the Gulf of Honduras, and also through the Windward
Passage. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the central to SW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere across the basin. A surface trough near Puerto Rico is
helping to enhance shower activity in the vicinity.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force
trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the overnight hours tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Sun
night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough analyzed over Puerto Rico is helping to generate
scattered showers between the northern end of the trough axis and
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the
Atlantic forecast region, with a 1028 mb high pressure located
just W of Bermuda, and also a 1030 mb high pressure centered ESE
of the Azores. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are
observed N of 20N and E of 22W. Fresh trades are blowing S of 25N
and W of 50W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are
7 to 10 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are
elsewhere S of 26N, along with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the
waters.
For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through Tue night, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Mon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front.
$$
ERA
