000
AXNT20 KNHC 120509
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 02S
to 10N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection
is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
A tropical wave has its axis near 60W from 15N southward to the
coastal border of Venezuela and Guyana. This wave is moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of
10N and W of 56W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends
from 02S32W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is seen S of 04N and W of 35W. More
scattered moderate convection is seen S of 06N between 16W and
26W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak cold front extends from the south-central LA coast to the
NE Mexican coast near 25N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed
from offshore Panama City, FL to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is occurring near Veracruz,
enhanced by the trough offshore. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring in the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to
NE winds are occurring behind the front as well as along the coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong N winds are
occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer pass.
Winds are gentle to moderate or weaker elsewhere. Slight seas
prevail across the Gulf.
For the forecast, a weak cold front currently over the NW Gulf
will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Tue morning, then stall and
dissipate on Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker on either
side of the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue
tonight in the vicinity of the front. High pressure and quiescent
conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another
weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate
over the E Gulf on Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea, except
for some convection near and over Panama due to the extension of
the Pacific monsoon trough along about 10N. The subtropical ridge
over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean.
Winds are locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, per a
recent scatterometer pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the
central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas, as well as
in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to
force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean
for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are
forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell
will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into
the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of
America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 26N and W of
70W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 25N. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere, except for
locally rough seas N of 29N between 20W and 25W in northerly
swells.
For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the
waters off of NE Florida early Tue morning, extend along 30N and
become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of our
waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh
or weaker on either side of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should occur along the front. Additionally, trades
just north of Hispaniola will pulse fresh to strong tonight and
Tue night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the
Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W
to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on
Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front and north of 28N will be
fresh to strong.
$$
Adams
