069
AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Long period northerly swell follows a
strong cold front that extends from 31N60W to south Florida at
1200 UTC. An altimeter pass indicates seas of 14 to 15 ft offshore
Florida. This swell event will continue to propagate southward
covering most of the waters N of 25N W of 55W and E of the Bahamas
by this evening. The cold front will reach from 31N50W to
Hispaniola by Mon morning. At that time, seas of 12 to 16 ft are
expected behind the front. Rough to very rough seas will continue
to affect most of central and western Atlantic waters N of 2ON by
Tue morning. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft by Wed
night.
Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zone of Agadir near the coast of W Africa. The forecast
calls for northeast gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts, from 29/18
UTC to 30/12 UTC at least. Seas are forecast to build to 15 or 16
ft with these winds by Mon morning.
For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia
near 06N10W and continues westward to 03N18W. The ITCZ then extends
from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S40W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between
05W and 25W. Similar convective activity is S of 01N W of 25W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A cold front stretches from South Florida to 24N90W where it
begins to dissipate. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate
to rough seas prevail behind the front over the NE Gulf E basin E
of 89W. Moderate NE winds are ongoing in the E Bay of Campeche
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with
slight to moderate seas. A narrow line of clouds, with possible
showers, is associated with the front, and now is reaching the
Florida Keys.
For the forecast, the cold front over the SE Gulf will stall and
dissipate early this week. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate
to rough seas across the NE Gulf will decrease today. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the E Gulf through
Thu night. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are forecast for
the western half of the Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake
of the Atlantic cold front and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Winds of similar
speed are ongoing across the Windward Passage, the lee side of
Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
prevail. Low-topped trade wind showers are moving westward across
the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and the Colombian low will support strong to near
gale-force NE to E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through
Thu night. This pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong
NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south
of Hispaniola. These marine conditions will likely prevail through
Thu.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A strong cold front extends from 31N60W to South Florida. Strong to
near-gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas follow
the front, and these marine conditions are currently affecting
the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and west of 63W. A well
defined band of mainly low clouds is related to the front. Ahead
of the front, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail.
Farther E, a surface trough is analyzed and extends 31N57W to
21N58W. A weak 1017 mb low pressure is along the trough near
27N56.5W. An area of showers, with isolated thunderstorms, is
ahead of the trough axis, covering the waters N of 20N between 50W
and 56W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under
the influence of a strong 1042 mb high pressure located NE of the
Azores. The associated ridge extends SW to near 50W. This system
tightens the pressure gradient across the area and supports fresh
to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas extending from
the NW coast of Africa to about 35W, including the Madeiras and
Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
reach from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating
over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to near-gale force N to NE
winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front.
Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
across most of the offshore forecast waters through midweek.
$$
GR
